‘Nova’s Dominant Run through the Bracket

April 4, 2018

In the final edition of the season of Assist Map, we examine the National Championship game between #1 seed and #3 seed Michigan. On Monday, April 2nd, the Villanova Wildcats defeated the Michigan Wolverines 79-62 to win their third championship and second in the last three years. In spite of their unusually quiet overall team performance, especially by National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson (4-13 from the field), the…

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MATHness odds

March 15, 2018

The March MATHness site has a new feature that produces a bracket. Behind the ratings are probabilities. I decided to try my own weightings with March Madness and see what probabilities popped out! Here they are! And, may I note that Davidson has the best odds for the 5-12 upset that is so often anticipated in the Madness. May the odds be ever in your favor as you make your…

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Predicting March Madness

March 12, 2018

Last summer I received funding from a Velay Fellowship from Haverford College to do sports analytics research at Davidson College in North Carolina and my main project was developing an algorithm to predict outcomes in the NCAA Division I March Madness Men’s Basketball Tournament. I finished my project in August and was able to backtest five years and demonstrate that my algorithm would have outperformed other methods (including fivethirtyeight, Power…

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The Truth Behind the 12-5 Upset

Everyone knows that you can’t fill out a bracket without picking at least one 12 seed to upset a 5 in the first round. While this well-known phenomenon has been backed up with data showing that it truly does happen more than you would expect, there has been almost no study into why exactly it happens. That is, until now. The truth of the matter is the 12-5 upset isn’t…

March 11, 2018
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