MATHness odds

The March MATHness site has a new feature that produces a bracket. Behind the ratings are probabilities. I decided to try my own weightings with March Madness and see what probabilities popped out!

Here they are! And, may I note that Davidson has the best odds for the 5-12 upset that is so often anticipated in the Madness. May the odds be ever in your favor as you make your bracket.

South Team Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet Sixteen Round of 32
1 Virginia 0.41 0.59 0.78 1.00
2 Cincinnati 0.22 0.45 0.70 0.95
3 Tennessee 0.14 0.35 0.71 0.96
4 Arizona 0.06 0.14 0.44 0.81
5 Kentucky 0.07 0.14 0.43 0.73
6 Miami (FL) 0.02 0.06 0.21 0.65
7 Nevada 0.02 0.06 0.15 0.50
8 Creighton 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.63
9 Kansas State 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.37
10 Texas 0.02 0.06  0.15 0.50
11 Loyola-Chicago 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.35
12 Davidson 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.27
13 Buffalo 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.19
14 Wright State 0.00 0.00  0.01 0.04
15 Georgia State 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05
16 UMBC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
West Team Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet Sixteen Round of 32
1 Xavier 0.19 0.37 0.68 1.00
2 North Carolina 0.29 0.48 0.74 0.99
3 Michigan 0.14 0.27  0.57 0.88
4 Gonzaga 0.16 0.31 0.55 0.93
5 Ohio State 0.10 0.21 0.41 0.85
6 Houston 0.05  0.11 0.29 0.65
7 Texas A&M 0.04 0.09  0.20 0.67
8 Missouri 0.02 0.05 0.15 0.48
9 Florida State 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.52
10 Providence 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.33
11 San Diego State 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.35
12 South Dakota State 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.15
13 UNC Greensboro 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07
14 Montana 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.12
15 Lipscomb 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
16 Texas Southern 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
East Team Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet Sixteen Round of 32
1 Villanova 0.42 0.64 0.87 1.00
2 Purdue 0.29 0.55 0.77 0.99
3 Texas Tech 0.09 0.25 0.62 0.95
4 Wichita State 0.04 0.11 0.41 0.91
5 West Virginia 0.09 0.20 0.56 0.89
6 Florida 0.03 0.10 0.33 0.77
7 Arkansas 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.47
8 Virginia Tech 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.57
9 Alabama 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.43
10 Butler 0.01 0.05  0.12 0.53
11 St Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.23
11 UCLA 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.35
12 Murray State 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11
13 Marshall 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09
14 SF Austin 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05
15 CS Fullerton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
16 Radford 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Midwest Team Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet Sixteen Round of 32
1 Kansas 0.23 0.51 0.74 0.97
2 Duke 0.37 0.53 0.86 0.99
3 Michigan State 0.24 0.36 0.73 0.97
4 Auburn 0.07 0.23 0.56 0.94
5 Clemson 0.03 0.14 0.37 0.75
6 TCU 0.02 0.05 0.17 0.68
7 Rhode Island 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.41
8 Seton Hall 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.58
9 NC State 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.42
10 Oklahoma 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.59
11 Syracuse 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.32
12 New Mexico State 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.25
13 College of Charleston 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06
14 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03
15 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
16 Penn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03

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