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Adam Merchant - 'CATS STATS https://catsstats.timchartier.com The Home of Davidson Sports Analytics. Thu, 14 Mar 2019 14:32:40 +0000 en hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 Can You Turn Left Like Jimmie Johnson? https://catsstats.timchartier.com/uncategorized/can-you-turn-left-like-jimmie-johnson/ https://catsstats.timchartier.com/uncategorized/can-you-turn-left-like-jimmie-johnson/#respond Thu, 14 Mar 2019 10:30:37 +0000 http://catsstats.timchartier.com/?p=607 One of the biggest misconceptions about racing is that it’s as easy as driving to the grocery store. Nothing could be further from the truth. For new fans, it’s hard to fathom just how difficult it is to turn left for 200, 500 or even 600 miles. Turning a steering wheel doesn’t seem like a […]

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One of the biggest misconceptions about racing is that it’s as easy as driving to the grocery store. Nothing could be further from the truth.

For new fans, it’s hard to fathom just how difficult it is to turn left for 200, 500 or even 600 miles. Turning a steering wheel doesn’t seem like a test of an athlete’s true potential, so drivers’ athletic skills are consistently dismissed.

However, comparing drivers with, say, basketball players is an apples-to-oranges exercise. We may not agree on the definition of athleticism but we can’t question the skill or grit drivers have. As with archery, we judge the athlete’s accuracy in hitting a bullseye, not by how fast they can run a marathon, but rather by how consistently they hit the target. In NASCAR, drivers should be judged on their stamina, strength, and agility during a race.

During a three-hour race, temperatures inside the car reach as high as 130 degrees Fahrenheit, and a driver’s heart rate ranges between 120 and 150 bpm, similar to that of a marathon runner.

We decided to take a look at seven-time Monster Energy Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson’s workouts on Strava to get a feel for how he stays fit for NASCAR.

During a three-hour race, temperatures inside the car reach as high as 130 degrees Fahrenheit, and a driver’s heart rate ranges between 120 and 150 bpm, similar to that of a marathon runner.

We decided to take a look at seven-time Monster Energy Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson’s workouts on Strava to get a feel for how he stays fit for NASCAR.

So far in 2019, Jimmie has clocked over 916 miles in 68 runs, which averages out to over a half marathon per session. There have only been 71 days in 2019 so far, so Jimmie is essentially running an incredible half marathon every single day this year. Aside from running, Jimmie has logged 116 miles biking over 5 stints and has swum 4500 yards in two swims. Safe to say, Jimmie’s workouts keep him quite fit for NASCAR and even more in shape than many professional athletes.

And that stamina is crucial on the race track. Turning accurately and consistently under race conditions is grueling. If you don’t believe so yourself, head over to a proper 60 mph go-karting track and I can guarantee that your shoulders and forearms will be sore for days, and you won’t be able to take the exact same line around the track twice. Speed this up about 150 mph and you find yourself in NASCAR territory.

To take the single fastest line around a corner, a driver must let off the gas and turn into the corner at exactly the same spot. Turn in two tenths of a second too late, and you’ll be off into the wall before you know it. Drivers often use specific landmarks on the track to initiate their turn. Ensuring this technical precision for hundreds of miles really takes a toll on a driver’s mental capacity throughout a race. Add in 39 fearless drivers screaming down the track at 200 mph waiting to pounce on your mistakes, and you get some of the most incredible moments in motorsports.

Without proper conditioning, the sheer mid corner G-forces would be enough to make many people lose consciousness. Many roller coasters exert about 3 G’s, but for only for a few seconds making many riders sick. Heavy G-forces lead to dizziness and severely hinder a driver’s ability to concentrate and race for victory. Drivers feel up to 5 times their weight when cornering, so the muscle memory in taking a turn in a simulator does not translate to a racetrack. Drivers must have good core stability and upper body strength in order to corner with these G-forces.

Alongside the sheer force of racing, the crushing heat of the cabin causes drivers to lose up to 15 pounds during a race. The dehydration these drivers experience through the race combined with the cornering G-forces requires a driver’s full concentration, something that most people are definitely not cut out for. Now, do you think NASCAR drivers are athletes?

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The Color of Victory https://catsstats.timchartier.com/uncategorized/the-color-of-victory/ https://catsstats.timchartier.com/uncategorized/the-color-of-victory/#respond Fri, 15 Feb 2019 00:18:44 +0000 http://catsstats.timchartier.com/?p=574 One would think that if you consecutively led the first 190 laps of a 200 lap race, then you should effectively have no problem leading the last ten laps, right? Not at Daytona. The last time a polesitter, the driver who starts the race in first place, took the checkered flag at Daytona happened a […]

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One would think that if you consecutively led the first 190 laps of a 200 lap race, then you should effectively have no problem leading the last ten laps, right? Not at Daytona. The last time a polesitter, the driver who starts the race in first place, took the checkered flag at Daytona happened a whopping 19 years ago when Dale Jarrett took the number 88 to his third and final Daytona 500 victory.

In the 18 races since Jarrett’s victory, half of them have been won by a driver who started tenth or worse while only one of them was won by a driver starting in a podium position. To put this into perspective, the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix had 11 of the past 15 races won by a polesitter. This goes to show just how difficult it is to predict a Daytona winner from the first wave of the green flag.

The Daytona 500 is almost impossible to predict. As ESPN’s Peter Keating put it, it’s the most random sports event in America. So, we decided to have some fun. Using a statistical analysis tool called JMP, we decided to examine a factor from the 2017 and 2018 Daytona races that should not have any correlation with driver performance: Color.

However, instead of betting on a Daytona race win, could we predict if a driver will finish with at least 30 points? For context, the race winner gets 40 points in a race weekend. There is a 5-point gap to second place, who gets 35 points. From there on, each driver gets one less point than the driver who finishes directly in front of them, equating to seventh place getting 30 points. There are 40 drivers in each Daytona race, but the slowest 5 drivers each get one point.

Using a car’s primary and secondary color and finishing points from the previous two Daytona races, we generated some pretty interesting results. Only 9 of the 62 cars whose primary color was blue, black, white, green or orange scored over 30 points in either race weekend. From these 62 cars, 21 of them had a secondary color of either blue, gold, green, grey, rainbow, silver, or yellow, and all 21 of them failed to score at least 30 points in either weekend! Additionally, of the 18 cars whose primary color was purple, yellow, or red, eight of them scored at least 30 points in either weekend. Only 17 drivers out of the 80 scored at least 30 points over the past two Daytona races.

Let’s consider our polesitter this Sunday, William Byron. He has not started on pole nor won a race at Daytona before. According to our JMP results, Byron falls under a primary and secondary color combination that has not yielded a single driver scoring over 30 points on either Sunday. On the contrary, the 52 car driven by Cody Ware has a red primary color and white secondary color. Four of the eight drivers with this color combination came out with over 30 points in either race weekend, but Ware is significantly slower than polesitter Byron during qualifying. Can Byron become the first driver in the past three years to score over 30 points with his primary and secondary color combination, or will Cody Ware show strong pace on Sunday and score big points for his team? Tune in Sunday at 2:30 EST to find out!

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