AFC Championship Game – (4) Cincinnati Bengals @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs 

Sunday January 30th, 3:00 PM (CBS)

Previous Matchup: Week 17 in Cincinnati, Bengals 34 – Chiefs 31

In the AFC, we have the Cincinnati Bengals heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. This will be their second matchup of the season and second matchup this month after their thriller on Jan 2nd in which the Bengals edged out the Chiefs with a field goal as time expired to win, 34-31. The Bengals finished the season 10-7, winning the AFC North for the first time since 2015. En route to the championship game, the Bengals defeated the Las Vegas Raiders in Cincinnati, 26-19, before heading to Nashville to defeat the number one seeded Tennessee Titans, 19-16, with a walk-off field goal in a late-game thriller. The Chiefs finished the season 12-5, winning the AFC West for the sixth season in a row. On their path to the Championship game, they trounced the Steelers in the first round, 42-21, before pulling off an epic comeback to beat the Buffalo Bills 42-36 in overtime in what was arguably the best game of the year with a walk-off touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce. 

The AFC Championship will feature some of the NFL’s best young stars. The matchup between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes will feature two quarterbacks ranked in the top six in passing yards with Burrow passing for 4,611 yards and Mahomes passing for 4,839 yards. These two also rank top eight in touchdowns – Burrow threw 34 and Mahomes threw 37. Both feature QB-Ratings over 98.0. These quarterbacks have been surrounded by some of the best skill players in the league. The Chiefs have WR Tyreek Hill. Hill ranks third in the NFL in receptions with 111 and seventh in receiving yards with 1,239. The Bengals have rookie standout WR Ja’Marr Chase. Chase ranks fourth in receiving yards with 1,455 and third in touchdowns with 13. Obviously both teams will be able to score, so the deciding factor will be whose defense can get the most stops. The Chiefs rank fourth in points per game, averaging 28.2, and eighth in points allowed per game, holding their opponents to an average of 21.4 points. The Bengals rank seventh in points per game, scoring 27.1 per contest, while they rank 17th in points against per game, allowing 22.1. Both quarterbacks are ranked in the top ten in interceptions, Burrow has 14 and Mahomes has 13, so whichever defense can take advantage of this lack of ball security will have the upper hand. 

The Chiefs are favored 70 to 30 over the Bengals, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. In order for the underdog Bengals to win this game, they’re going to have to play at a high level. Minimizing stalled possessions and turnovers is essential while also maximizing their offensive prowess along with their defense playing excellent. The Bengals have been proving doubters wrong all year, but will their roar finally turn into a whimper? 

NFC Championship Game – (6) San Francisco 49ers @ (4) Los Angeles Rams

Sunday January 30th, 6:30PM (FOX)

Previous Matchups: Week 10 in San Francisco, 49ers 31 – Rams 10; Week 18 in Los Angeles, 49ers 27 – Rams 24 (OT)

The NFC Championship will be this season’s third matchup and the second this month between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers beat the Rams both times this year, 31-10 on November 15th and 27-24 on January 9th. The latter of the two matchups is what advanced San Francisco into the playoffs. The Rams finished 12-5 and won the NFC West while the 49ers finished 10-7 at 3rd in the NFC West. On their way to the Championship game, the Rams stayed in LA to toss the Arizona Cardinals, who finished 2nd place in the NFC West, 34-11, before heading to Tampa Bay to dethrone the defending Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 30-27. The 49ers traveled to and defeated the Dallas Cowboys 23-17, then traveled to Green Bay and handed the number one seed Packers their playoff exit ticket in a defensive showdown, 13-10, in a beautiful snowy wonderland. The Rams employ a flashy West Coast themed offense that looks to throw the ball and score points while the 49ers are a hard nosed zone schemed offense who look to dominate time of possession by predominantly running the ball. 

The Rams, led by their star-studded offense, ranked 5th in the NFL this season averaging 273 passing yards per game. WR Cooper Kupp won the triple crown, finishing first in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns and was accompanied by WR Odell Beckham Jr., who rekindled his career in Los Angeles catching six touchdowns since he was acquired by the Rams mid-season. Matthew Stafford ranks third in passing yards (4,886), second in touchdowns with 41, and has a QB Rating at 102.9. The Rams defense also finished ranked third in sacks. Not to be outdone, the 49ers ranked 3rd in the league this season only allowing 310 yards per game. The 49ers look to utilize one of the most versatile players in the NFL, Deebo Samuel Jr., who has 1,405 receiving yards along with 365 rushing yards. San Francisco will look to feed their running back, Elijah Mitchell, who finished the season eighth in rushing yards with 963. 

The NFC Championship will be a battle of two vastly different styles of football, but one thing is common, both of these teams will need a strong defensive effort to win this showdown. The odds are leaning towards the Rams according to ESPN FPI, 60 to 40, but the underdog 49ers are riding into town with high confidence. In order to win, they will need to find a way to slow down the high flying Rams offense, take advantage of Deebo Samuel’s explosiveness, be stingy with the ball, and control time of possession. The 49ers will take their hour flight down the California coast with the utmost confidence having owned the Rams lately, winning six straight matchups. Is this where the streak ends, or will San Francisco continue to own California? 

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COVID-19 has caused many game cancellations and program shutdowns. When analyzing the field of 68, there are some important COVID-19 implications to address. Most teams did not play as many games as they would in an usual season and some teams did not have a consistent roster throughout the season due to COVID-19 outbreaks. Depending on the severity of the outbreak, a team could have completely shut down basketball activities. When analyzing selections for a bracket, the time at which the outbreak occurred is important. Outbreaks at the beginning of the season have less effect on the caliber of a team, as they have returned to normal actives and schedules. Outbreaks towards the end of the season have a higher impact, as teams may have lasting effects such as the deterioration of skills. It is extremely hard to come back from a hiatus and continue to play at the same intensity and skill level, making it very unlikely for it to elevate. Also, with the diminished schedules, it can be crucial to analyze what games were missed during a program’s outbreak. If a program missed a game against a high-quality opponent or a conference tournament game, the team could lose several advantages. The first being a first-hand account of playing a team they could meet in the tournament. Another being not experiencing the intensity and environment of high quality or highly anticipated game. In games like those, coaches have the opportunity to analyze their teams. 

Some other general points of emphasis when considering selections for brackets are defense, stats in the last two minutes of a half, rebounding, and the age of a team. The defense is becoming more important as college basketball is becoming slow-paced. The decreased speed of the game creates a more grinding and physical game. The effect of a slow-paced game is emphasized in the NCAA tournament. The last two minutes of the game are often the most critical points within a game. Throughout the tournament, many games will be won and lost in the last two minutes of a game. Analyzing a team’s ability to perform well in the last two minutes, can give insight on whether they can close out games in the clutch essentially making them viable or unviable. Rebounding is indubitably one of the most important phases of the game. A rebound determines the team that receives possession of the basketball. In a slow, physical, defensive game, each possession decides which team wins the games, and the more possessions a team has, the higher the chances of winning. For NCAA champions, young teams generally do not perform as well as veteran teams in the NCAA tournament. Winning in the NCAA tournament varies from winning the regular season games, as it is more difficult. The most overlooked difficulty is the experience it takes. For all the freshmen across the country, the tournament is an entirely new experience for them. With the quick turnarounds, changing opponents, and game-plans drastically quick, combined with the change to a slower-paced game, a freshman can be thrown completely array. It is crucial to have experienced players to contribute to the team, especially if they can contribute tournament experience since it is drastically different from a normal game. Looking at every NCAA champion since 2010, every team has had at least two upperclassmen players, that were included in the top seven minutes played. Although every sports fan indulges in the glamor of a superb freshman, the experience is critical to the success of a team in the NCAA tournament. 

When scouting a team, I, Morgan, gather background information on the team such as getting a good idea of the starting five, or the seven players who consistently rack up minutes. Then using Synergy, I break down and elevate each player along with highlighting how to enhance their weaknesses and conceal their strengths. Then I go and evaluate the film on the software’s film feature and cite examples in my report so the coaches can be aware and have evidence of my claims. After that I compare how opponents played against common opponents, other teams that my team has already played, to show how the techniques I suggested work and will affect the outcome. 

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The pandemic has caused the overall #1 seed, Gonzaga, to miss seven games. The most important being an early-season matchup against the #1 seed from the South region, Baylor. The implications of the missed game were massive as it was an early matchup of the top two teams. The game was slated as the most anticipated matchup up until that point. The result of missing highly anticipated matchups could be fatal, as wins against ranked opponents hold a higher value than other slated games. The more importance a win holds, the more implications it has on the selection committee when reviewing resumes for tournament play. Michigan, the #1 seed in the East missed six games, all within their conference schedule. One of the missed games was a highly anticipated matchup against the #1 seed from the Midwest and then ranked #4, Illinois. The implications of missing conference games could result in lower seeding in conference tournaments along with losing potentially high-valued conference wins. Winning the conference tournament grants an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament, so seeding is crucial to winning the conference tournament, which is crucial to bracket bidding. 

Michigan played the Fighting Illini later in their schedule, resulting in a loss. The absence of the first game between the two holds plenty of uncertainty. If they met before, would Michigan have evened the series at one apiece, or would the Illini have swept them, increasing their bracket stock, or would the outcome of the game be different if Michigan did not have to delay their games and continued playing at the same extremely high level? The Illinois program did not shut down, but they missed five games. The effects of shutting down an entire program could be detrimental to the performance or morale of a team. A complete program shutdown lasts a week minimum, which could prohibit the development and retention of skills, along with the installation and development of game plans. 

With the overall health of programs around the country looming large from week to week and the big dance approaching, coaches, players, and staff are on high alert. In the past week, there have been examples of a failed protocol as Duke, Virginia, and Kansas all withdrew from their conference tournaments due to a positive test within the program. Among all the protocols for the NCAA Tournament, there are two very important protocols: “each team must have at least 5 eligible players”, and “if teams are impacted by COVID-19 they will be forced to withdraw and a contingency plan will be drawn up to replace the team.” Essentially no matter how large the impact of COVID-19, as long as a team can lineup five players, they can participate in the tournament giving teams some hope and alleviate some fears among programs. With two of the “Blue Blood” schools missing the tournament in Duke and Kentucky, the second protocol observed could be the newest bid to participate. With the possibility of a team testing positive at any moment’s notice, the NCAA has ruled that a team could be replaced by another team that did not qualify for the tournament originally. The usual unfavored, underdog “Cinderella Story” make take a spin this year to a five-player under-manned and underpowered team instead. Or even a replacement team that goes on to shock the world. 

References:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs/schedule/regular/

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/MICH/michigan-wolverines/schedule/regular/

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/ILL/illinois-fighting-illini/schedule/regular/

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/BAYLOR/baylor-bears/schedule/regular/

https://www.si.com/college/2021/03/12/covid-19-protocols-ncaa-basketball-tournament

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