I would normally start this piece with a witty anecdote or burning statistical question. We’ll get to both of those shortly, I’m sure, but I mostly want to emphasize how much you should cherish this tournament in its current form.

I’m writing this the morning the transfer portal opens, and if one of your teams isn’t dancing, odds are you’ve already missed some big news about next year’s roster. We’ll have Stanford student-athletes traveling across three time zones next winter to play ACC conference games in the Triangle. And many are dead set on expanding the NCAA Tournament to 80 teams or more in the very near future so we can get first round matchups like the coming NIT game between 17-16 Georgia and 16-17 Xavier in the NCAA Tournament.

I jest and I’m not here to editorialize, but pretty please do not change the NCAA Tournaments. I could be sold on a First Four for every region perhaps, but going past 72 borders on silly. Expansion might sound egalitarian at first, as if it will benefit teams like this year’s 28-6 Indiana State, but SEC commissioner Greg Sankey recently made it very obvious who the Powers That Be want to help out. It’s the 18-15 Villanovas of the world, not the Indiana States or Princetons or Davidson Colleges.

My final research project for Eco 321 (Sports Economics!) just last semester focused on parity in the transfer portal era. Here’s the gist that you don’t need an econometrics class to understand: the average seed in deeper rounds of the tournament is increasing. Think about it: we had a Final Four with San Diego State and Florida Atlantic last year! In fact, the average seed in the 2023 Final Four was the second highest ever and higher than all but one Sweet Sixteen in the KenPom era.

For reasons we’ll get into, I’m expecting a little less early chaos this time around. I’m also going to be shocked if we somehow get a 5 and 9 matchup to make the National Championship this year. That doesn’t mean this tournament won’t be memorable, because they all are, aren’t they? Don’t mess this format up, NCAA.

I’ll be citing my self-compiled KenPom dataset of historical pre-tournament rankings throughout this article to try to pick up on any trends. Be wary of anyone who tries to use post-tournament ratings to retroactively “predict” national champions. If you want to use “predictive” metrics like KenPom or Torvik’s T-Rank, you should use the data at the time you would have made the predictions, not ex post facto. The historical averages in efficiency and ranking are below. Broadly speaking, Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) is a team’s scoring margin per 100 possessions relative to the “average” D1 team. The numbers cover every tournament from 2001-2023. I’ll be coming back to these to check which teams are relatively strong or weak for their seed line. e.g., 1 seeds are generally in the top 5 and have roughly a 29.0 margin, and so on:

The Cats Stats Advanced Stats Glossary: The “Four Factors“ (in order of importance)

eFG% – An adjusted field goal percentage metric that accounts for the fact that three-point shots are worth more than two-point shots. On defense, it’s the eFG% allowed. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 50.5%
TOV% – On offense, it’s the estimated percentage of possessions that a team turns the ball over. On defense, it is an estimated number of possessions the team forces a turnover. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 17.1%
ORB% – The percentage of rebound opportunities on offense where the team successfully gets a rebound. On defense, it’s the offensive rebound percentage allowed to the other team (1 – ORB% against = DRB%). NATIONAL AVERAGE: 29.0%
FTr% – The percentage of shots that result in a trip to the free throw line (only includes 2-point attempts). Calculated by FTA/FGA. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 32.9%

All game times EST. All opinions are my own. If you like any of this analysis and want to use it feel free! Please credit us on Twitter @CatsStats or @LLB_Podcast.

Enough talk. Let’s get into it.

East Region

1 UConn (31-3) vs. 16 Stetson (22-12) 2:45 PM, Friday, CBS

Last year, UConn’s dominance may have taken some by surprise. The Huskies were a top 5 metrics team entering the tournament last year, but they were also a 4 seed with 8 losses. They rolled to the championship, winning every game by double digits. The Huskies might have a history of titles, but they haven’t won one as a 1 seed this century; they’ve done it as a 2, 3, 4, and 7. The 1 seed may have been the kiss of death last year, but last year’s group was historically weak. The average AdjEM of 1 seeds all-time is 28.89, but that number last season would have been enough to be the best team in the field entering the tournament, with the 4 ones averaging a 26.01. All lost by the Sweet Sixteen. The ones this year, however, average 29.43 and comprise all of the KenPom top 3. In short, expect less chaos, though one early exit might be likely (we’ll get to that later!).

Stetson made an impressive run in the A-Sun tournament to clinch their first ever Division I tournament trip. Naturally, then, the selection committee rewarded them with a virtual road game against a Huskies team that profiles as one of the top 20 teams to ever enter the tournament by efficiency margin at 32.21. Only 26 teams have entered the tournament in the Over 31.0 Net Efficiency Club: that elite group represents 7 National Champions and makes the Final Four more often than they miss it, at 15/26. Only 2 were eliminated in the first weekend (2010 Kansas and…2018 Virginia). Houston is also in this club. The matchups don’t look great for Stetson, either; they’re a bottom 25 defense playing the most efficient offense in the country, and they’re the number 283 defensive rebounding squad facing a top 15 offensive rebounding team.

8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) vs. 9 Northwestern (21-11) 12:15 PM Friday, CBS

If you had told me FAU would find themselves in an 8-9 game once again in late December, I probably wouldn’t have believed you. The reigning Final Four participants defeated Arizona in a triple OT thriller and looked poised to run through the weakened Houston and Memphis-less American for a top 5 seed. Much of last year’s roster was intact. Instead, they hit for the NET Quadrant “cycle,” notching both wins and losses in Q1, 2, 3, and 4. Their AAC tournament run ended with a Q3 loss to sub-.500 Temple, cementing an odd boom-or-bust resume. Northwestern is making their 3rd NCAA appearance under Chris Collins and 3rd all-time. They too failed to escape the dreaded 7/8/9 seed lines; they’ve been a 7 and 8 only to lose to a top 2 seed in the Round of 32 in their prior appearances. The number 1 overall seed awaits them with a win here, but they are one of just 4 teams to defeat 1-seeded Purdue this season. Both of their matchups with the Boilers went to OT, and they defeated them at home to open B1G play.

8-9 games are as close to a coin flip as it gets. My dataset will tell you 8’s have won 51% of the time since 2001, but they do have higher ceilings. This game is also as close as any to a coin flip in the entire first round, with only 5 spots separating 41 FAU and 46 NW in the efficiency rankings. These are both top 30 offenses that can shoot the rock very well, but if it comes down to perimeter defense, FAU has a slight edge. Northwestern ranks 310th in 3PT% against at 35.9%, while FAU shoots it a solid 35.6% from distance and places 24th in eFG% at 55.0. The Wildcats, who hit 39% of their own triples, will need to remain an elite 3PT shooting club to keep pace.

5 San Diego St. (24-10) vs. 12 UAB (23-11) 1:45 PM Friday, TNT

For the third time in 3 games, the East Region features one of last year’s Final Four. SDSU has been a metronome under Brian Dutcher. This is their 6th tournament appearance in 7 years, and the best regular season team during that stretch – the 30-2 2020 team – had its postseason canceled. They’ll have a tough road ahead of them with UConn as their 1 and a historically strong 4 that we’ll get to momentarily, but this matchup looks manageable. UAB is making their 2nd tourney in the last 3 years under Andy Kennedy after an AAC title run, but they come in with 11 losses and an efficiency profile that would be below average for a 14 seed, much less a 12 seed. 12s, a usual golden upset pick, average an AdjEM of 12.97 and an overall ranking of 56.7 in the dataset. UAB ranks outside the top 100 at just 6.28. That said, they’re 19-6 since a mediocre start and have won 5 straight. They may fail to counter one of SDSU’s biggest strengths, however; the Aztecs are a solid offensive rebounding team at 32.7%, while the Blazers are a poor defensive rebounding side at only 31.0%. Pair that rebounding edge with a defense that’s elite as always, and SDSU has the makings of a strong favorite.

4 Auburn (27-7) vs. 13 Yale (22-9) 4:30 PM Friday, TNT

Last year’s tournament boasted 2 4-seeded teams in the overall top 5: UConn and Tennessee. One was champion, and the other lost to Final Four bound FAU in the Sweet Sixteen. This year’s elite 4 is Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers, ranking 4th in AdjEM. However, they’re not just elite among 4’s, they would be elite among 3’s. Here are all the 3 or 4 seeds above a 26.0 AdjEM in the KenPom era:

That’s an elite group, in which all but 2 teams made the second weekend and 5/12 made the Elite Eight. For reference, 3’s and 4’s make that round only 28% and 13% of the time, respectively. Auburn currently sits at an incredibly impressive 28.90 AdjEM after winning the SEC Tournament. That means Auburn is not only the second strongest 4 seed ever, it would be the second strongest 3 seed ever as well. The Tigers’ dismal 3-7 Quad 1 record kept them off a higher line, but they didn’t lose a single game below that quadrant and usually won in blowout fashion.

They get Yale in the first round. Those Bulldogs dramatically came back late to steal the Ivy League Championship from Brown, but they fell to the 13 line over some 12 seeds who they’re ostensibly better than. Despite Yale being the second strongest 13, Torvik gives Auburn an 89% chance of advancing here, which is unsurprisingly highest among the 4 seeds. If there’s hope for Yale, it’s that they’re an elite defensive rebounding team, allowing a 24.0 ORB% against. However, they’ll have to find ways to score against an aggressive Auburn defense that’s best in the nation in 2PT% against at 42.4%. Johni Broome is the star that anchors it, notching north of 2 blocks a night while leading the Tigers in scoring. 

If you pick Auburn to get past a potential UConn matchup – which is *ON PAPER* far more likely than you’d think – you stand to gain a lot of extra points in your bracket contest over the average user. UConn is being picked as champs by roughly 30% of users depending on your platform, which is more akin to the odds of a 2001 Duke or 2015 Kentucky type team than the typical top overall team. I’m not convinced it will actually happen, but drawing a 4 seed that has the profile of a top 2 seed is a rough break for the defending champs.

6 BYU (23-10) vs. 11 Duquesne (24-11) 12:40 PM Thursday, TruTV

14 out of 15 A10 fanbases found themselves rooting for Duquesne last Sunday, as the 6-seeded Dukes dashed VCU’s hopes of repeat championships in a 57-51 title game win. In the process, they clinched their first tournament berth since 1978 to send HC Keith Dambrot into retirement in style. His last dance would, of course, be more stylish with a win or two in the NCAA tournament. They face one of the most electric offenses in the whole thing in a BYU team that lights it up to the tune of a 55.1 eFG% and a 3PT attempt rate over 50%. The Cougars profile as potentially the strongest of the field’s 6 seeds, appearing in the top 20 on both KenPom and Torvik. The Dukes, on the other hand, look at first like one of the weakest 11 seeds in recent memory: they’re one of six 11 seeds ever to rank outside the top 80 overall. Only 1 out of 24 11’s ranked 60 or worse has made the second weekend.

HOWEVER! There is one 11 who entered the tournament outside the top 80 that made a legendary run all A10 fans will be familiar with. That team was 2011 VCU, who just barely got into the dance from the CAA by winning a First Four game. The rest is history. Strangely enough, even 3 of the 5 non-VCU 11 seeds ranked outside the top 80 won their first round game as well. Moreover, the Dukes have been a different team since late January, winning 15 out of 18 games with a defensive efficiency bordering on the top 10 in that span. Duquesne has shot makers in Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III, but they make their hay with a top 30 defense that excels on the perimeter, holding opponents to just 31.4% from deep. That could be pretty handy when facing a team that puts up 50.7% of their shots from long range. This overall second game of the tournament is one of my favorite matchups of the entire first round; call Duquesne overseeded at your own risk.

3 Illinois (26-8) vs. 14 Morehead State (26-8) 3:10 Thursday, TruTV

Illinois makes its fourth consecutive tournament appearance under Brad Underwood, but the Illini have failed to make the second weekend each time. While they can score with anyone, they’re the first of 3 teams on the 3 and 4 seed lines this year that – to put it lightly – experiences lapses defensively. Despite a consensus top 3 offense and the Big Ten Tournament Title, the Illini struggle to disrupt on the defensive end, ranking bottom 5 in the nation in TOV% on defense at just 12.3%. Morehead State enters with 6 consecutive wins behind a red-hot offense of their own that ranks 34th in eFG%. The one thing they struggle at that might be pertinent here is turning the ball over. They give it up on 18.6% of possessions; when they avoid this issue their offense is quite impressive. Their willingness to shoot the three ball (45.1% 3PAr) also sticks out against a mediocre Illinois perimeter defense that allows opponents to shoot 34.3% from deep, which puts them outside the top 200.

7 Washington State (24-9) vs. 10 Drake (28-6) 10:05 Thursday, TruTV

I’m personally still reeling from picking Drake in the first round last year over Miami, but the Bulldogs look pretty attractive once again, making their third tourney appearance in 4 years after a dramatic 84-80 win against Indiana State in the MVC title bout. Like so many college ball lovers, I LOVED that Sycamores team and are sickened they’re at home while Virginia and Michigan State dance. Que sera, sera. Drake’s odds look poor on the surface: of the 20 teams seeded on the 10 line to rank outside the top 50 in AdjEM, just 3 won in the first round. That’s dismal compared to the nearly 40% rate at which all 10’s beat their 7’s.

Wazzu, though, profiles as a lighter 7 seed. The Cougars rank 42nd overall, which historically puts them in the bottom quartile of all 7’s. Drake went 7-4 against top 100 teams and actually profiled better in those games, playing more like a top 35 team. They take great care of the rock with a 13.9 TOV% in the top 15 nationally, while Wazzu struggles to force turnovers at a mere 15.9% on defense. Combine that with elite defensive rebounding from Drake – which is quite literally the Best Defensive Rebounding Team in America – and the Bulldogs might have the extra possessions that give them the edge. Finally, note that this game is in Omaha, meaning it’ll be a very Drake-heavy crowd.

2 Iowa State (27-7) vs. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) 7:35 Thursday, TruTV

Iowa State rolled through the Big XII tournament in such impressive fashion that there were calls for the Cyclones to be a 1 seed the eve of Selection Sunday. An abhorrent and frankly Bad for Basketball non-conference schedule that ranked outside the top 300 in difficulty might have prevented that. (This is no opinion piece about the state of the sport, so I digress, but if you want to be on the top line, you should schedule like a top team.)

The truth is, though, the Cyclones look For Real. They absolutely demolished the 1 seed Houston 69-41 in the Big XII final. Iowa State is now a top 5 KenPom team, weak non-conference schedule be damned. However, they’ve done so with a dominant defense and an offense that’s sort of just good enough, ranking outside the top 50. No top 2 seed with an offense outside even the top 35 in efficiency has ever made the Final Four, but don’t look for fireworks this round. South Dakota State hangs their hat on offense and doesn’t really thrive in the sort of rock fights that Iowa State lives for. The Jackrabbits will lose a lot of possessions against the second best defense in the land at forcing turnovers, and they don’t rebound well enough to win those extra shots back.

WEST REGION

1 North Carolina (27-7) vs. 16 Howard/Wagner 2:45 Thursday, CBS

UNC gets the winner of the first game of the NCAA Tournament game in Dayton Tuesday night, which I’ll be watching while finishing up this article. Wagner looks to be the more dangerous of the two, but it would take an incredibly poor shooting day for this one to get close.

Just while we’re here, though, let’s have a talk about these Tar Heels. Do I expect any 16 over 1 upsets this year? No, and expecting one to begin with is a silly proposition. However, as transcendent as newly minted First Team All-American RJ Davis can be and as dominant as Armando Bacot has been, I’m left feeling the Heels are the most vulnerable of all our top seeds. UNC currently sits 9th in the metrics, the only 1 seed outside the top 3. Since the start of February, Torvik thinks UNC has played like the number 14 team in the country, not a top 4 one. UNC sits at a 24.65 AdjEM; here’s every 1 seed to ever enter the dance below 25.0:

Predictive metrics are not the end-all-be-all. They never are: there’s the difficulty of a team’s draw and schematic matchups and sheer luck and everything else. That’s why we write these previews. The fact more of these teams lost in the first weekend (5/12) than made the Final Four (2/12) and none even made a title game appearance is noteworthy, though. For reference, 1’s represent their region at the Final Four about 36% of the time and only lose in the first weekend 18% or so of the time. ESPN users are choosing Carolina as their champion around 10% of the time, behind only Houston and UConn. I still believe Carolina could make the Elite Eight or further. That said, there is undeniable value to fading this squad early. We need to find a tough draw that might further incentivize us to make that call. So, let’s do exactly that.

8 Mississippi State (21-13) vs. 9 Michigan State (19-14) 12:15 Thursday, CBS

I’m tired, man. I’m tired of having to advocate for Michigan State teams because of Analytics. Yet here I am once again, telling you how Tom Izzo still has good odds of advancing despite a low seed in the Year of Our Lord 2024. Sparty was a team I bought low on last year when they drew a weak high seed, and it paid off with a win over Marquette and trip to the Sweet Sixteen. This team isn’t as good as that one on paper – 14 losses and a 3-9 Q1 record are just gross for a tournament team – but they find themselves as the KenPom number 18 team with an AdjEM over 20. Here are the 8/9’s in the last decade with that efficiency and a top 25 ranking:

3 wins over 1 seeds in 7 tries is not too shabby. It’s also noteworthy that these teams are 5/7 at winning the traditional coin flip 8/9 game. Even if Mississippi State wins this one, they’re also a top 30 team with a top 20 defense as an 8 seed, which is above average for this seed line.

This game might get ugly. It’s especially concerning that the NCAA thought this was the appropriate game to lead off the tournament on Thursday, as it screams something like a 64-59 final score. Both teams possess elite defenses and play slow paced games. Sparty has the advantage of forcing a lot of turnovers (18.7 defensive TOV%) against a careless Dawgs offense that is bottom 75 nationally in giving the ball up. Mississippi State can make up for that by pounding the glass and getting to the FT line, which they excel at, but neither of those areas are glaring weaknesses for Izzo’s squad on defense. Michigan State is the team that everyone resents is in the field, but the vibes say that those sorts of teams usually steal a game.

Doesn’t change the fact that I hate it!

5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) vs. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) 10:05 Friday, TruTV

It’s another matchup of elite defenses, with both teams in the top 10 in eFG% against: SMC is 3rd and Grand Canyon is 10th. Though KenPom ranks the Lopes as the best of the 12 seed bunch at 53rd overall, they draw a top 20 team in the Gaels, fresh off dethroning Gonzaga in the WCC. The story for the Gaels is the same as ever under Randy Bennett: elite defense, capital F fundamentals, and rebounding. They are likely the best all-around rebounding team in America, placing in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive rebound rates. That could cause serious issues for a Lopes team that generates a fair chunk of its offensive output by crashing the glass with a 34.6 ORB% of their own. They’re also a bad defensive rebounding team, ranking outside the top 200 on that front. That will undoubtedly be problematic against this St. Mary’s team.

4 Alabama (21-11) vs. 13 Charleston (27-7) 7:35 Friday, TruTV

Illinois was the first of our top 4 seeds with a questionable defense, and Alabama is the second. The Tide, however, grade out even worse, with a defense outside the top 100 nationally. They live to win games with 102-91 final scores, possessing the 2nd most efficient offense in the country that plays at a breakneck pace. Their offensive efficiency was as high as 128.1 in mid-February, which would have set a record for the KenPom era. It’s tough to find a historical comparison for them, but here’s an attempt:

That’s every top 4 seed with a top 10 offense and sub-100 defense; they all roughly fall in the teens in overall efficiency. To be fair, none of these teams come close to matching Alabama’s pace, but this is the best we can do! While 2015 Notre Dame pushed 38-1 Kentucky to the brink in a legendary regional final, the others are notable for the wrong reasons: Purdue lost to a 15, Creighton lost in the Round of 32 with Dougie McBuckets himself, and Wichita State went down in the first round to an 11 loss Marshall team.

The numbers are even more bleak for Alabama’s defense in recent months. They’re 178th in defensive efficiency since mid-January per Torvik. It’s fair to question their effort on that end. Pat Kelsey’s teams, on the other hand, are known for relentless effort. They work tirelessly on the offensive glass, which could exploit Alabama’s 218th ranked defensive rebounding. Alabama also does not force turnovers (277th in TOV%), while Charleston is disciplined with the rock (27th in offensive TOV%). Charleston will certainly not “stop” Alabama per se, and Mark Sears is the type of offensive superstar (21.1 PTS / 4.1 AST / 65.3 TS%!!) who keeps you alive in close games in March. The Cougars are 18-0 when scoring 80+ this season, though, and the fact that seems more likely than not is concerning for the Tide.

6 Clemson (21-11) vs. 11 New Mexico (26-9) 

Of all the regions, this is the one with games that I will keep going back and forth about right up until Noon Thursday. Not this game though!

The Lobos are going to be a trendy upset pick by the conventional wisdom of being a “hot” 11 seed coming off a conference tourney win. With their season on the line, they won 4 games in 4 days (3 against tournament competition) to secure a 6-bid MWC. UNM would have been below the at-large cut line, and, as KenPom’s 23rd best team in the land, my research tells me they would have been the highest rated team on the site to not get a bid in over 15 years (excluding Louisville and SMU teams that were sanctioned).

The pesky thing about conventional wisdom is that it’s sometimes true, just for perhaps the wrong reasons. In “four factors” terms, UNM is going to have a massive turnover advantage here (Clemson never forces them on D at 342nd, UNM is top 15 in not giving it up) and is an elite offensive rebounding team. They will get off more shot attempts, and Clemson will need to shoot very to keep up. Analytically, the Lobos are also straight up favorites on both KenPom and Torvik. A 11 favored over its 6 has happened only four times in the past decade: 2017 Xavier (def. Maryland, made E8), 2016 Gonzaga (def. Seton Hall, S16), 2015 Texas (lost), 2014 Tennessee (def. UMass, S16).

3 Baylor (23-10) vs. 14 Colgate (25-9) 12:40 Friday, TruTV

Remember that chart of teams who don’t play much defense but can score with anyone? Baylor was on that list just last season, but they’ve improved this year. They retain an elite offense with a defense now at least inside the top 75. They’re top 25 in eFG%, ORB%, and FTr%, putting them as the nation’s 6th most efficient offense. Pretty good!

If you’re looking for reasons to sell Baylor stock, I do have some. They’re 15-64 from three over the last 3 games with an eFG% below 50 in all of them, and I’m not convinced their defense has been fixed. More like patched up. The Bears are top 100 in ORB% against, making them a respectable team on the defensive glass. Where they’re not respectable in eFG% against – they allow opponents to put up a 51.3 eFG%. That’s 223rd nationally.

Colgate is a team we keep waiting to pull a big upset. This is their 5th tournament in a row: they’ve dominated the Patriot league under Matt Langel. They’ve been a 14 or 15 every year, but only keep it within single digits twice. This squad looks like the weakest of the bunch; it ranks outside the KenPom top 130 and lacks the gaudy shooting numbers of the last few Raider squads. They do have a very good defense by eFG% (47.2%) and ORB% against (24.5%), but those are Baylor’s strengths. The Raiders have a good enough 3PT defense (their opponents shoot under 30%) to exploit Baylor’s recent struggles from deep, but the Bears still have 91% odds of advancing here per Torvik. I’ll be monitoring this one, though, especially if Baylor comes out shooting cold.

7 Dayton (24-7) vs. 10 Nevada (26-7) 4:30 Thursday, TBS

It’s another virtual pick ‘em game here, with only four places separating our 32nd-ranked Flyers and 36th overall Wolfpack. Torvik, meanwhile, has the teams flipped, with Nevada outpacing Dayton by 3 spots. The Pack’s resume looked much better than that of a 10 seed, and I abhor the committee making mid majors play each other in the First Round, but I digress.

Dayton is a top 3 team from beyond the arc, hitting over 40%, but Nevada’s strong 3PT defense (31.4%) will test them. Dayton is also excellent at not fouling, which could be huge against a Nevada side with a 46.2% FTr, good for 3rd in the country. That discipline comes at the expense of forcing turnovers. The Flyers don’t do it much (15.0%), and Nevada has great ball security (15.0 TOV%). 

I don’t have much else useful wisdom here, as I think this is probably the closest matchup in the whole First Round. Both teams are virtually tied in the resume metric Wins Above Bubble (2.8 for 23rd Dayton, 2.6 for 24th Nevada), meaning they’d probably have seven losses if they swapped schedules. One thing I do know is that Dayton has Daron Holmes II, and Nevada does not. This is probably going to be my last decision in my bracket Thursday morning.

2 Arizona (25-8) vs. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) 2:00 Thursday, TBS

If you haven’t heard, Long Beach State managed to win the Big West conference tournament after announcing they’d part ways with head coach Dan Monson. Awkward! But also a perfect encapsulation of how wild this sport can get.

Unfortunately, that’s probably going to be the most interesting thing about this game. Yes, Arizona lost to a 15 in Princeton just last season, but LBSU is a fair worse team than those Tigers (KenPom #163) and Arizona is a far better team this time around. The Wildcats are an elite rebounding team on both ends of the floor – 16th on offense and 5th on defense – and even a horrid ‘Zona shooting day would leave the Beach (yes, this is their nickname!) with an uphill battle.

I despise the X offense and Y defense KenPom stats, but I’ll allow one here: teams with top 15 offenses AND defenses are undefeated in the First Round, and 47 out of 72 (65.3%!) have made the Elite Eight or farther. Plus 26 Final Fours. And 8 Championships. As of writing, Arizona sits 8th and 12th, respectively. This team stands in stark contrast to last year’s Wildcats team that was just okay at defense and weak among 2 seeds historically. They’re quite strong for the 2 line this year at a 26.62 AdjEM and 6th overall ranking. Caleb Love hit the Shot of All Shots for the Tar Heels against Duke two years ago; the third team All-American could conceivably do it to his former squad in an Elite Eight game this year.

South Region

1 Houston (30-4) vs. 16 Longwood (21-13) 9:20 Friday, TNT

Same old, same old for Houston. They’re a 1 seed for the second year in a row and looking to make the Sweet Sixteen or farther for the fifth tournament in a row, and they’ve done it with basically the same formula: defense and shot volume. They force turnovers like nobody else, and crash the offensive glass like nobody else. They also have my 2nd favorite player in the country in first team All-American Jamal Shead. He’s the dream playmaking, two-way PG: 2nd in the country in Defensive Box-Plus-Minus and 8th in Assist rate at 39.6%. If you buy the “guard play wins in March” cliche, he and LJ Cryer are as good as it gets.

I could gush about Houston’s defensive scheme for hours – it is by far my favorite in the sport – and love the way they take away every single ball screen. I am concerned about the Cougars’ shooting, however, which sits at a dismal 47.7 eFG% away from home. Despite this troubling fact, they’re the best ball-security team in the nation and are an offensive rebounding juggernaut as always. There’s an 11 percentage point difference between their TOV% on D (24.7%, 3rd overall) and O (13.7%). Let that sink in!

Longwood plays a similar rebound and pressure style to Houston, but they’re markedly worse at both. Moreover, they aren’t a particularly ball secure team, giving it up on 18.0% of possessions. That’s not going to cut it against the Cougars.

8 Nebraska (23-10) vs. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) 6:50 Friday, TNT

I have nothing against the Aggies, but Texas A&M might be my least favorite team in the field to watch; they shoot 28.4% from three and get by on the offensive boards, where they’re first in the country with a 41.9 ORB%. Nebraska is nearly the polar opposite: a great shooting team that takes (45 3PA%) and makes (35.7%) a lot of threes. A&M’s defense allows opponents to attempt roughly 45% of their shots from beyond the arc, so they’ll need some outside shotmaking from Wade Taylor to keep pace. His shooting percentages aren’t great (36% overall, 30% from deep), but he can explode for 5 treys or more. Also of note: the Huskers are a top 15 2PT defense at 45.2%, while the Aggies convert only 47.0% of their twos.

5 Wisconsin (22-13) vs. 12 James Madison (31-3) 9:40 Friday, CBS

At last, a 5-12 that looks ripe for an upset. Wisconsin played so well in the Big Ten Tournament it almost made one forget they lost 12 games. They were knocking on the door of the AP Top 5 at one point and could have been a top 2 seed. They’re an undeniably great offense, but James Madison has experience beating B1G opposition. The Dukes won in dramatic fashion over then top 5 Michigan State on opening night to set the tone for a 31 win season and their first tournament appearance in over a decade.

Torvik has this as our most likely 12 seed victor, but the odds are still relatively low at 28%. All-time, JMU is a pretty average 12, ranked 59th compared to the 56.7 historical average. I do see positive matchups for the Dukes, though. They generate a lot of shots at the rim (43.3% of their attempts are close twos) and finish well (61.3%). Wisconsin, meanwhile, allows opponents to hit a nasty 65.3% of their close twos on defense. JMU could do it outside as well, though; Wisconsin allows opponents to shoot 37.1% from deep (bottom 20 nationally), where the Dukes connect an outstanding 36.5% of the time. JMU also does not bother with midrange jumpers, so from a shot quality perspective they excel. That said, don’t write off the top 15 Badger offense. I’m looking forward to a high-scoring, competitive game here.

4 Duke (24-8) vs. 13 Vermont (28-6) 7:10 Friday, CBS

This time last year, everyone was IN on Duke as a 5 seed thanks to an ACC Championship run and draw that included perennially suspect March programs Tennessee and Purdue. Duke was gone in the Round of 32. 

Now, everyone seems to be OUT on Duke. They were swept by UNC, blowing a potential share of the ACC Title in Cameron to the Heels. They lost in the ACC Tournament QF to NC State. And they’ve drawn one of the most consistent top seeds in Houston. Not even Jay Bilas’s bracket has them in the second weekend.

Paradoxically, then, I am *somewhat* buying Duke stock now.

Vermont, like our friends Colgate, has recently dominated their conference, but they too lack a signature upset. They’ve come out of the America East 5 times since 2017, but failed to win as a 13 and 15 seed each year. Also like Colgate, the Catamounts may have one of their worst teams in recent memory. Vermont was a top 100 team the last 3 times they got a 13 seed, but they’re outside the top 100 in the metrics this year. Duke, on the other hand, is the rare 4 seed in the KenPom top 10, just like Auburn. Here are the 4’s from the last decade to enter the dance in the top 10 with an AdjEM over 24.0 (Duke sits just a shade under 25 as of writing):

I can’t believe I’m selling myself on Duke, but here we are. Matchup wise, Vermont will not turn over Duke very much, and the Blue Devils should dominate the glass (25.9 ORB% against) versus a Vermont team that is not interested in offensive rebounding (345th overall). Crazier things have happened, but the odds say 8 of 9 similar teams to Duke have made the second weekend. That’s outstanding compared to the 47% survival rate for all 4 seeds.

6 Texas Tech (23-10) vs. 11 NC State (22-14) 9:40 Thursday, CBS

It’s not often you get bid thieves from power conferences, but the Wolfpack did exactly that with 5 wins in 5 days (or 5 ice cream scoops) to snag the ACC Title. That included wins over UNC and Duke. Their reward is a date with the Red Raiders, who profile as a pretty average 6 seed historically. They sit 24th at an 18.54 AdjEM; the average is 25.3 at an 18.8 efficiency margin. Tech sits at 66% to advance on Torvik, which is surprisingly good odds for a 6 seed, though. We just talked about the dangers of picking hot conference tournament champs with last year’s Duke example. See also: 2021 Georgetown, who went from Big East pillow fight to a 12 seed, then promptly lost in the first round. These sorts of runs can be draining.

Matchup wise, this game is hard to pin down. Both teams are basically decent at everything. The most pertinent information is that Tech is a great 3PT shooting club at 36.5%, while State struggles outside, allowing opponents to hit 34.9% from deep. NC State should get a slight shot volume advantage thanks to turnovers, but they’ll also need a subpar shooting performance from a good shooting team. I could be persuaded into picking either side here.

3 Kentucky (23-9) vs. 14 Oakland (23-11) 7:10 Thursday, CBS

Remember this graphic?

Kentucky, like Alabama, is in this club. Just like Alabama, they were torched in the SEC Quarterfinals, losing 97-87 to Texas A&M. 

It’s great to see Oakland and their living legend HC, Greg Kampe, back in the tournament for the first time since 2011 in Kampe’s 40th year on the job. They’ll face a tall task slowing down the best 3PT shooting team in the country; UK hits 41.2% of their triples. The Golden Grizzlies are a quality shooting club as well, hitting on 35.1% of their triples. Both teams’ opponents take roughly 40% of their shots from outside, so expect a lot of threes and a fun game. At 86% to advance, Kentucky feels safe here, provided Oakland does not pull a “14 made three-pointers” game out of the top hat.

Let’s discuss their long term outlook a bit further since, as usual, they’re a trendy Final Four pick. If the above graphic doesn’t convince you, here’s another stat that might: only 1 top 4 seed has ever made the Final Four with a defense ranked outside the top 50. That was 2013 Michigan. Trey Burke isn’t walking through that door. Moreover, that Wolverines team at least had a defense ranked 66th. To repeat, Kentucky is outside the top 100. 

My point is this. Most people building brackets are putting the ‘Cats in the Sweet Sixteen without much second thought. 72% of CBS users have them going at least that far. They’re being picked nearly 80% of the time in a hypothetical TTU matchup where they’d be favored by only 2 points in the metrics. I can’t blame them; they have the capital D Dudes. Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are young but incredible and could give you 30+ any given night. KenPom has them as the weakest 3 seed in the field, though. They’re 21st on KenPom and 25th on Torvik when the historical average 3 would be in the top 15. The odds of Kentucky actually advancing to the second weekend are more like a coin flip, at 49.6% on Torvik.

7 Florida (24-11) vs. 10 Colorado OR Boise State 4:30 Friday, TBS

We won’t know who the Gators face until Wednesday night with the conclusion of the First Four. Florida is yet another explosive SEC offense with a weaker defense, ranking top 15 in offensive efficiency but outside the top 75 in defensive. Florida has elevated their play against top 50 competition, though, playing like a top 20 team in those games. C Mitch Handlogten’s status is in question, but the Gators have one of the best backcourts in the country and rely on elite guard play. They’d be a much larger favorite over Boise than Colorado, so keep your eyes on their matchup tomorrow night. We’ll update this section as needed.

2 Marquette (25-9) vs. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) 2:00 Friday, TBS

I have nothing against Shaka Smart; he seems like a fine dude. But Marquette is a team I faded early last year, and I may have to do it yet again. A Smart-coached team hasn’t even seen the Sweet Sixteen since the incredible 2011 VCU run. My real reasoning is much less personal, though. 2 seeds below a 23.0 AdjEM have rarely fared well, and Marquette will most likely be facing a strong UF or Colorado squad in the next round. Of the 22 teams on the 2 line to enter the tournament below that efficiency threshold, only 2 made the Final Four. 13 of them lost in the first weekend, including 4 to 15 seeds. Here are the last 8 such examples, which include last year’s Marquette and Arizona squads:

Marquette currently sits at a 22.48 AdjEM, making them pretty average among this group.

Western Kentucky doesn’t possess strengths in the areas that give Marquette the most trouble. They project to lose the turnover battle by quite a lot in this game, they don’t rebound well enough to expose Marquette’s poor rebounding, and they’re a fairly average shooting team. Marquette allows opponents to take 43% of their shots from deep, so some triples would come in handy for the Hilltoppers. And we haven’t even mentioned the health of All-American PG Tyler Kolek, who missed the Big East tournament and might not be able to go Friday. Nothing about this matchup screams incoming upset, but the path ahead for the Golden Eagles looks murkier upon deeper inspection.

Midwest Region

1 Purdue (29-4) vs. 16 Montana State/Grambling 7:25 Friday, TBS

From last year’s preview:

“To win, you have to make Edey give it up, then hope Purdue’s young backcourt turns the rock over. Their losses to Indiana (the 1st time), Rutgers, and Northwestern all occurred due to a turnover rate over 20% on offense…FDU [forces turnovers well]; they’re 32nd nationally at a 21.4% rate. That and an ice-cold Boilermaker shooting performance are how this gets interesting.”

It can’t happen again. It surely won’t happen again.

But in all seriousness, Zach Edey still being Zach Edey combined with Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer turning into bona fide stars catapulted Purdue from great to elite. Their AdjEM has jumped to 29.09 this year, an improvement of nearly 5 points per 100 possessions. They were in the top 3 with Houston and UConn chasing the number one overall seed the past couple of months. Don’t let the bad taste from their loss to Wisconsin in the B1G Semis distract you from the fact Purdue is way better than last year and way better than all the Purdue teams before that. Yes, Matt Painter has been labeled a choker, but so was Jay Wright for a while. 

Their one Achilles Heel in an otherwise elite offense (it’s top 15 in all the other Four Factors) remains turnovers. They turned it over on 20% plus of possessions in all their losses. They also struggle immensely to force turnovers on defense, ranking in the bottom 30 nationally. Grambling is an aggressive defense that can capitalize on that weakness, so they’d be the more interesting matchup here. But I just can’t see it happening again.

8 Utah State (27-6) vs. 9 TCU (21-12) 9:55 Friday, TBS

Unlike a lot of the other 8/9 games, TCU is a pretty big metrics favorite here. The Frogs rank in the low 30’s on both Torvik and KenPom, with Utah State barely in the top 50. The Aggies are a great perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 29% from 3PT. If TCU does miss a lot of threes in this game, however, they can lean on their 35.5 ORB%. Utah State’s rebounding is decent, but it can’t quite stack up to that level. Moreover, the Aggies really struggle to defend inside, allowing opponents to convert 53.1% of 2PTs. If there’s hope, it’s that they excel at getting to the FT line, which could take advantage of TCU’s very aggressive defense.

5 Gonzaga (25-7) vs. 12 McNeese (30-3) 7:25 Thursday, TBS

Will Wade, the Outlaw himself, rides again with a McNeese squad that coasted to the Southland title in his first year on the job. The Bayou Bandits play one of the most fascinating pressure schemes in the country, blitzing ball handlers in the pick-and-roll and over helping to turn opponents over often. It works: they’re 6th nationally, forcing giveaways on 23.0% of opponents’ possessions. They also shoot 39.4% from distance, top 5 in the country.

The thing about pressure is that it doesn’t work as much when you’re playing, y’know, Gonzaga. The Zags have been better than basically everyone at playing an up tempo game in Mark Few’s storied tenure. They’re once again one of the most ball-secure teams in the field, giving it up only 14.0% of the time. Since a road loss to St. Mary’s in early February, the Zags have played like a legit top 10 team by Torvik’s standards, notching road wins over Kentucky and those same Gaels in a 9 game win streak. A rubber match loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC Championship soured the taste of that stretch just a bit.

This is undoubtedly one of the best First Round matchups. Gonzaga is a heavy metrics favorite thanks to McNeese’s poor schedule. The Cowboys played exactly one Quad 1 opponent: VCU in the season opener. They won, but Gonzaga is an entirely different beast. The 5 seeds most similar to the Zags (elite offense, good defense) offer boom-or-bust potential. If you squint, you can see 2019 Auburn, a team that got hot late and survived a very scary 12 seed to make the Final Four.​​ The Tigers were ranked 8th and 45th; Gonzaga is currently 9th and 45th.

4 Kansas (22-10) vs. 13 Samford (29-5) 9:55 Thursday, TBS

Kansas is going to be without Kevin McCullar for the tournament, and Hunter Dickinson’s status is questionable. That’s 2 All-Americans the Jayhawks may not have the services of. However, KU’s star was fading even before their injuries. In their last 10 games, in which they went 4-6, Torvik doesn’t even peg Kansas as a top 50 team. In short, they’re a trendy upset candidate for a reason.

Torvik still favors Kansas here by 78%, but that’s less than all of the other 4 seeds. Samford is a ridiculously good shooting team (8th in eFG%, 3rd in 3PT%), and they force a lot of turnovers on defense (21.7 TOV%), which makes for some pretty exciting basketball. Sometimes, though, upsets can feel a little too obvious, and if you need justification for still liking Kansas here, I can point to the fact Samford is an abysmal rebounding team (outside the top 300 in ORB% against) who also fouls a lot (283rd in FTr against). The Jayhawks also happen to be coached by Bill Self. This is another must watch first round game for me. Drama!

6 South Carolina (26-7) vs. 11 Oregon (23-11) 4:00 Thursday, TNT

This Oregon team reminds me quite a lot of Dana Altman’s 2019 Ducks, who had no path to at large but won the Pac-12 tournament to steal a bid. Like that team (and essentially every Altman team), they improved immensely down the homestretch of the season. They were in the Sweet Sixteen that year as a 12 seed.

Big man N’Faly Dante is a star, but played only 44.7% of minutes for the Ducks this year due to injuries. He’s healthy for the tournament, and, even though it’s cliche, the Ducks really are a different team when he plays. South Carolina’s record is incredibly impressive, but the Gamecocks aren’t loved by the analytics. KenPom and Torvik just barely have them as one the nation’s top 50 teams. Matchup wise, Lamont Paris’s side struggles to force turnovers and relies heavily on the offensive glass for points. The former will be a serious issue against an Oregon team that almost never coughs it up. The latter could also be problematic against a very solid rebounding squad. The Gamecocks do all the little things right, though, and that has served them extremely well in close games all year, as this one projects to be.

3 Creighton (23-9) vs. 14 Akron (24-10) 1:30 Thursday, TNT

Creighton is one of the all-around best teams in the field. They’re top 15 in both eFG% on offense and defense, ranking in the top 25 in overall efficiency in both. Schematically, they run one of the nation’s most complicated offenses and bring back key pieces from last year’s run to the Elite Eight. Do I have anything to suggest fireworks here? Not really, but I do have long term concerns with the Jays: 1) they are the least aggressive defense in the field and are dead last in the nation at forcing turnovers and 2) their ORB% is a poor 25.9%, which is a problem when you attempt a ton of threes and generate long rebounds. 

Akron enters as our KenPom #117 squad, and 14 seeds outside the top 102 have won only once in 37 tries. They’re a case of a team that does everything just fine but doesn’t rely on one strength. They lack the ball security to take advantage of Creighton’s conservative defense, and while they’re a great 2PT shooting club, the Blue Jays defense is designed to take away those looks. They’re more vulnerable against teams that can hit a barrage of threes.

7 Texas (20-12) vs. 10 Colorado State (25-10) 6:50 Thursday, TNT

The Selection Committee would really like a Texas win to set up a “Rick Barnes vs. former team” matchup in the second round, but Rodney Terry’s Longhorns have to get past a pesky CSU squad first. The Rams just blew out Virginia in the First Four despite being the last at large team in the field. This profiles as yet another difficult 7-10 game to pick, because both teams share the same strengths. They’re both top 50 shooting teams (Texas 50th, CSU 29th) with quality defenses. Against top 100 teams, the Rams play like a top 20 team, per Torvik. The Horns are top 30 against top 100 competition, but they’ve struggled on defense in those games, ranking outside the top 100 in efficiency. That said, Texas will have a major defensive rebounding edge, even if they’re not particularly great at it, as CSU is outside the top 300 on the offensive boards. Both these teams would have a real shot against Tennessee in terms of the metrics, but neither screams matchup nightmare, either.

2 Tennessee (24-8) vs. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) 9:20 Thursday, TNT

St. Peter’s completed arguably the greatest Cinderella run of all time just 2 years ago, but none of the 2022 Elite Eight team’s key pieces remain with the program. The Peacocks are now coached by Bashir Mason, with former helmsman Shaheen Holloway narrowly missing the tournament at Seton Hall this year. They’re still a defense-first club, posting a top 20 ranking in eFG% against. That comes at a price: St. Peter’s is the least efficient offense in this year’s tournament at #306. That’s a problem when you’re playing Tennessee, who’s the best defense in the field outside of Houston for the second year in a row. The Vols even made the Sweet Sixteen just last year without star PG and SEC DPOY Zakai Zeigler. His half brother, Armoni, is a freshman in the rotation for the Peacocks, which gives the NCAA a good storyline to sell for this matchup. That and the potential for the Peacocks to beat another SEC powerhouse 2 seed make this one look fun on paper. 

The reality might not be as fun. St. Peter’s has the worst offense for a 2 seed ever, and there are 16 seeds in the field rated higher in the metrics. They also cough it up on 19.6% of possessions, which is a problem against one of the most aggressive defenses in the country. 

I haven’t even mentioned Dalton Knecht, the National Player of the Year runner-up and SEC POTY, who should really get an entire paragraph. Tennessee has never, ever had a scorer close to his level under Rick Barnes. He averaged 21.1 on a 58.4 TS% on the year, but shrink the sample to conference play (the point at which he’d shaken off a nagging injury from December) and Knecht averaged 25.5 POINTS on a 60.3 TS%. That included 39 on a top 5 Auburn defense, 40 against Kentucky, 39 against Florida, and 36 at Georgia. His most impressive performance may have come in a loss at the Dean Dome, where he set the record for a visitor against UNC with 37 points on just 17 shots. The fact the Vols didn’t even need him to go for 20+ to pick up road wins over Alabama and Kentucky is scary. He is a lottery pick, and, for my money, the most exciting player in the tournament.

Thanks for reading! See you next week for the Sweet Sixteen outlook!

The post NCAA Tournament: First Round Preview first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

A pair of 1 and 2 seeds were knocked out; half of the top 8 seeds in the whole thing went home just like that. Now, we briefly noted last week the amount of parity in college basketball this year when discussing Houston, and I’ll note KenPom’s pre-tournament projections gave us coin flip odds of multiple 1-seeds going out before the round of 16. Seeing it all play out, however, was a different story entirely. A 15 and 16 winning in the same tournament! A 15-seed going into the Sweet Sixteen for the third year in a row! It’s an overused word, but it was legitimately unprecedented for these things to happen at once. However, the delightful matchups we’ve got coming up soon suggest the best is yet to come for this dance.

EAST REGION

4 Tennessee vs. 9 FAU (9:00, Thursday)

Tennessee def. 13 ULL 58-55 and 5 Duke 65-52

Florida Atlantic def. 8 Memphis 66-65 and 16 FDU 78-70

Tennessee became a favorite for many in America after thrashing Duke, holding the Blue Devils to only 52. They’ve allowed a combined 107 points in 2 tourney games, which is about par for the course for a Rick Barnes defense. Jon Scheyer has a bright future, but the 2nd half decision to zone up against the Vols, one of the best offensive rebounding teams in America, was a questionable one. That decision also got Olivier Nkamhoua going; he had a textbook offensive performance to break the zone’s weak spots, getting into the middle of the zone to splash a midrange jumper, attacking the “slot” on the baseline for a big dunk, then hitting a few big threes from the wing. That led to a 20-point second half and a 27-point outing overall. Tennessee led the entire second half.

But what in the wide world of sports happened in Columbus, Ohio? 16-seed FDU, only in the dance due to a technicality regarding NEC tournament champs Merrimack and their transition to D1, become the SECOND 16 SEED EVER to defeat a 1, knocking out Purdue in an all-timer. Sure, I may have said turnovers and cold shooting could knock Purdue out early, but seeing FDU’s beautiful, relentless defensive pressure in action was staggering. I definitely didn’t have that fate in mind for the Boilermakers in the first round. FAU had their hands full with that Knights squad after an equally thrilling 66-65 game against Memphis won on the last possession.

Nothing gets easier for the Owls now. A controversial late (attempted) dunk with the game “over” against FDU turned their potential Cinderella story into a Villain Arc for many. We’re going to see strength-on-strength at the Garden Thursday, with the #1 3PT defense of Tennessee (holding opponents to only 26.4% from deep) facing off against an explosive FAU shooting team, who takes 44% of their shots beyond the arc at a 36.7% clip. FAU has struggled from deep in the tournament, and they could see issues if they can’t get inside against Tennessee. Only 32.3% of the Owls’ shots are close 2s, and Tennessee allows opponents to get to the rim only 33.2% of the time. FAU also struggles to get to the FT line in large part due to this shot selection (296th in FTr nationally), which is problematic, as Tennessee’s foul issues have disappeared in the past 4 games. The Vols haven’t had an opponent FTr above 22.8% in that timeframe. The Owls have to connect from deep; winning a low-scoring game like they did against Memphis will be extremely difficult against the best defense in the nation by efficiency.

3 Kansas State vs. 7 Michigan State (6:30, Thursday)

Kansas St. def. 14 Montana St. 77-65 and 6 Kentucky 75-69

Michigan St. def. 10 USC 72-62 and 2 Marquette 69-60

Remember when Michigan State’s path to advancing was hitting the 3 ball? So that was a lie. After winning exactly one game this regular season where they hit 5 or less threes, they’ve advanced to the Sweet Sixteen hitting a grand total of 7 threes in 2 games. The reason? Defense and Tom Izzo. I didn’t predict a run, but I did say the vibe was he was “due” for one. The Hall of Famer has made the Elite Eight or farther as a 5-seed or higher 4 times, highlighted by a 2015 run to the Final Four as a 7. Sparty has been to the Final Four quite literally at least once every 5 years since the Clinton Administration. They’re two wins away from doing it again. One of the worst defenses at forcing turnovers in America has averaged a 21.0 TOV% through the first two rounds. Kansas State survived an inspired performance from Oscar Tshiebwe to knock Kentucky out; they turned the rock over on only 11% of their possessions in that game. When turnovers aren’t an issue, Marquis Nowell makes beautiful things happen in transition with his incredible 41.0% assist rate.

It’s thus no surprise that I think the turnover margin is the key to this game. KSU is 8-7 when turning it over on at least 20% of possessions with the majority of those wins against weak OOC opponents; they’re 17-2 otherwise. MSU has only forced turnovers on 15.1% of opponents’ possessions this year, but as said, they’ve turned a new leaf in March. This battle will dictate the tempo of the game. KSU wants to run, ranking 46th in tempo. When that happens it’s the Nowell show, as he uses his speed and craftiness to find easy buckets for the Wildcats. MSU settling into a half court game (306th in tempo) will favor them, as it has in their low-scoring games thus far. If the Spartans experience some 3PT regression up to their season average, the odds are good for them to keep dancing. However, KSU has shown they can roll over you if they hold onto the ball and follow their tried-and-true formula on offense of Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.

WEST REGION

8 Arkansas vs. 4 Connecticut (7:15, Thursday)

UConn def. 13 Iona 87-63 and St. Mary’s 70-55

Arkansas def. Illinois 73-63 and Kansas 72-71

Entering the Big Dance, the Hogs had lost 4 of 5 and 6 of 9. So much for momentum; they knocked off 1-seed and defending champs Kansas in a dramatic late rally. UConn has also rallied in the second half; they’ve outscored their 2 tourney opponents 89-49 through their first 2 games. Big man Adam Sanogo had 52 in those games, and the Huskies are 11-0 on the year when he scores 20+. The scariest thing is that they hardly needed their elite offensive rebounding against a very good St. Mary’s team, torching one of the best defenses in America to the tune of a 64 eFG%.

The good news for the Hogs here is that they can bang down low with anyone in the country. They’re averse to outside jumpers, and rightfully so, as they’re a porous 31.3% shooting team from deep. Only 27.8% of their shots are threes, and UConn isn’t great at keeping opponents out of the paint, with 38.8% of opponents’ FGA coming as close twos. Arkansas shoots an excellent 67% from there. However, Arkansas’s mediocre rebounding (138th in DRB%) is going to be put to the test against a Huskies team that collects 38.8% of their own missed shots.

3 Gonzaga vs. 2 UCLA (9:45, Thursday)

Gonzaga def. 14 Grand Canyon 82-70 and 6 TCU 84-81

UCLA def. 15 UNCA 86-53 and 7 Northwestern 68-63

2006, Adam Morrison, Crying, Heartbreaker, 2021 Final Four, Rematch, Jalen Suggs, Buzzer Beater, etc. That just about covers all the bases for the NCAA’s storybook Sweet 16 matchup. Be prepared to hear these words ad nauseum Thursday night. But guess what? This is also just an incredible matchup in general. UCLA vs. Gonzaga hasn’t disappointed in their previous tournament meetings, and this one shouldn’t either. The number one offense in the country faces the number one on defense via KenPom’s pre-tournament efficiency (Tennessee has just barely passed UCLA in defense for now.) Neither team had much drama in getting here, though TCU gave the Zags a good scare before a second-half offensive surge.

The box office matchups here are the veterans PG Tyger Campbell and F Jaime Jacquez against Gonzaga’s own veterans in Drew Timme and sharpshooter Julian Strawther. Across the board, you’ll find UCLA’s defense is elite in terms of the four factors, while the Zags offense is elite in those same categories. Each side is respectively top 20 in eFG% (or eFG% against), 2PT%, and TOV%. And once again, we have a fast Zags team (40th in tempo) vs. a slow UCLA squad (243rd). One key difference is that UCLA takes great care of the basketball, with only a 15.1 TOV%, while the Zags defense struggles to turn teams over (18.3%). Even without Jaylen Clark, UCLA was able to get a very similar Arizona offense (coached by Mark Few’s longtime assistant Tommy Lloyd) into a rock fight in the PAC-12 Championship. The Zags aren’t on Zona’s level defensively, even if they are still dancing, so Gonzaga may struggle to win that sort of game. However, you don’t need me to tell you Gonzaga is a machine offensively, and they’re perfectly capable of overcoming UCLA’s elite 3PT (31.0%) and interior (53.3%) defense. UCLA can give the Zags issues by making them settle for threes and limiting Timme inside. I am so excited for this basketball game.

SOUTH REGION

1 Alabama vs. 5 San Diego State (6:30, Friday)

Alabama def. 16 TX A&M CC 96-75 and 8 Maryland 71-52

SDSU def. 12 Charleston 63-57 and 13 Furman 75-52.

Alabama showed how they can beat you both ways in the first round with their top-rated defense. They posted an absurd 131 offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) in the first round, only to follow it up with an equally absurd 76 defensive rating (same thing for points allowed) against Maryland. SDSU had to contend with a pair of hot mid-majors in Charleston and Furman. As predicted, Furman hit just enough threes to give Virginia fits, winning dramatically late, but they were no match for SDSU’s defensive intensity. 

While the Aztecs have the defensive chops and athleticism to disrupt Alabama like Tennessee did back in February, the Tide can match their prowess on that end. Both teams are top 5 in defensive efficiency, and both teams hold opponents to below 29% from deep. For the Aztecs to win, they have to muck this game up and force turnovers. 4 of the Tide’s 5 losses were the product of a TOV% over 25%, with the only exception being their complete defensive implosion against Oklahoma (they lost 93-69). Suffice to say Alabama isn’t likely to have that happen again. The Aztecs will also have to manage the defensive boards against a great rebounding Alabama team (24th in ORB%). Charleston’s pesky offensive rebounding made for good practice there, but Alabama’s speed is a different beast entirely. The hopes of the MWC’s first ever Elite Eight ride on SDSU; it would do wonders for the conference’s reputation after its other tourney participants went 0-3 last week and had a dreadful 0-10 stretch in the dance until the Aztecs’ first round win last week.

6 Creighton vs. 15 Princeton (9:00, Friday)

Creighton def. 11 NC State 72-63 and 3 Baylor 85-76

Princeton def. 2 Arizona 59-55 and 7 Missouri 78-63

I may have liked Creighton last week, but I never thought I’d be typing the words “Creighton vs. Princeton” for this write-up. The Tigers somehow held Arizona nearly 30 points below their average on the season. Remember when I questioned their ability to control the pace? (Some of my takes aged better than this one, don’t worry.) Well, Arizona had some turnover issues (nearly 20% of possessions ended in one), but Princeton managed to hold the Wildcats to 63 possessions on offense with beautifully executed offense of their own to dictate the tempo. It was no surprise then when they obliterated an awful Missouri defense in round 2. It was surprising, however, that this is the third year in a row we’ve had a 15 in the Sweet Sixteen. 7 15-seeds have won since 2012 after only 4 had won previously. On one hand, this screams regression to the mean due to the Law of Large Numbers: most 2-seeds are favored to win roughly 90% of the time. The outcomes are thus becoming more reflective of that probability. However, 15s are also unequivocally getting better; the introduction of the First Four for the final 4 at-large teams has bumped what used to be dangerous 13 and 14 seeds down a line or two. Some auto qualifiers used to be 11s; now everyone’s getting knocked down a peg.

How does Princeton keep it going? They keep executing their pretty offense out of the post with point-forward Tosan Evbuomwan, who’s averaging 12 points, 8 boards, and 4.5 assists so far. However, the cuts that have made the Tigers so successful will be tough against a Creighton D that allows opponents to take close 2s only 32% of the time; by comparison, Princeton has been getting there 44% of the time this season. Princeton also struggles to get to the foul line, ranking 195th in FTr, and we mentioned last week just how good Creighton is without fouling (2nd in FTr allowed). The Jays lit Baylor’s defense up, shooting 46% from deep, but Princeton, as we’ve already seen, can defend the 3PT line well; they held Arizona and Missouri to a combined 9 made threes, with neither team even sniffing 30% from distance.

The previews for the remainder of Friday’s games will be up soon!

The post NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Preview first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

(I preferred Puss in Boots: the Last Wish’s meditations on existentialism and life’s impermanence for Best Picture to EEAAO’s forays into nihilism, but I digress.)

Well, the purpose of this piece is NOT offering bracket advice or predicting games. I want to sort out that bagel of information as much as I can, though. What’s one statistical storyline to glean about every game this weekend? My findings may affect your picks in some manner, but again, this is not advice. Please don’t DM me saying “u don’t know ball” after you incorrectly pick Utah State to the Final Four because I say they’re a bit underseeded. I’m simply here to observe and report; I’m a bracket auditor. You should get the glory for making good picks anyway, and copying a bracket is like doing a note-for-note cover. If you want a good cover, do something like Dinosaur Jr. did with “Just Like Heaven.” Go crazy and be bold. I went 28 of 32 in the first round 2 years ago but only got 1 Elite Eight team right last year, so don’t listen to me. If you learn something here, make it your own!

Cats Stats’ Advanced Stats Glossary: The “Four Factors“

eFG% – An adiusted field goal percentage metric that accounts for the fact that three-point shots are worth more than two-point shots. On defense, it’s the eFG% allowed. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 50.5%
TOV% – On offense, it’s the estimated percentage of possessions that a team turns the ball over. On defense, it is an estimated number of possessions the team forces a turnover. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 18.2%
ORB% – The percentage of rebound opportunities on offense where the team successfully gets a rebound. On defense, it’s the offensive rebound percentage allowed to the other team (also known as DRB%). NATIONAL AVERAGE: 28.5%
FT% – The percentage of shots that result in a trip to the free throw line (only includes 2-point attempts). Calculated by FTA/FGA. NATIONAL AVERAGE: 31.6%

SOUTH Region

1 Alabama vs. 16 Texas A&M CC / SE Missouri St.

The Tide snatched the top-overall seed in the dance for the first time in program history off the back of steamrolling through 3 games in 3 days at the SEC tournament. They defeated 3 tournament teams (11 Mississippi State, 7 Missouri, and 7 Texas A&M) all by double digits en route to the SEC title. If you’ve watched the Tide the past couple of seasons (or watched them lose to your Davidson Wildcats last season) you’ll know they’re built around high-octane offense. They ranked 4th in adjusted tempo this season per both KenPom and Torvik. However, you might not have noticed they’re the top defense in the nation this year in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage at a smothering 41.5%. Their reward is facing one of the two lowest-rated teams in the bracket: KenPom #257 SEMO or #170 Texas A&M CC. Update: Texas A&M CC advanced, winning 75-71.

8 Maryland vs. 9 West Virginia

The NCAA loves their geographical rivalries, so the border war between Maryland and WVU should be an unsurprising matchup here. They haven’t met since the 2015 Tournament. This is also the first game of the dance (outside the First Four), tipping at 12:15 Thursday, at which point I will tragically be in class. However, it ranks 1st among Thursday games in the Torvik Thrill Quotient at 80, and projections spit out nearly coin-flip odds. It’s worth noting that this is the only 8/9 matchup this year where the 9-seed is actually ranked higher on both KenPom and Torvik, and 9s went 3-1 last year against the 8s. The storyline here is turnovers: the Mountaineers are top 50 at forcing them (20.9% turnover rate on defense), while the Terps are top-50 at avoiding them (16.2% on offense).

5 San Diego St. vs. 12 Charleston

You may remember Charleston’s game against Davidson in the Charleston Classic. I’d rather not reminisce, but let’s just say the Cougars looked really, really good during both that tournament and the majority of the season, eclipsing 30 wins and cracking the AP Top 25 at one point. The Cougars want to overwhelm you with tempo and a barrage of threes (9th in 3PT attempt rate at 47%). They win by winning extra possessions: lots of threes lead to plenty of long rebounds, thus plenty of offensive rebounds. Charleston ranks 17th in ORB rate at 35.1%. However, they got a tough draw in a feisty SDSU defense, so they’ll need all the extra possessions they can get against the #7 3PT defense in America, which holds opponents to 29.2% from deep. This one comes down to Charleston’s stroke from outside and their ability to earn more shot attempts against a good (but not quite great) defensive rebounding SDSU team (64th nationally). That’s nothing the Cougars aren’t used to. A rock fight here would favor the Aztecs, who have the best odds of advancing among 5-seeds on Torvik at 78%.

4 Virginia vs. 13 Furman

Furman, Davidson’s old SoCon rival and most played all-time opponent, just made the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1980. They’ll tango with a UVA team that lost their last time out as a 4-seed to Ohio in 2021. In fact, they’ve lost in the first round 2 of their last 3 tries in March. (Don’t ask Auburn fans about that time they didn’t.) Despite the championship pedigree, Virginia looks overseeded by advanced metrics: they’re on the 4 line despite ranking outside the top 32 on both KP and Torvik. The Cavaliers are, as always, built on a Tony Bennett pack-line defense (ranked 25th in defensive efficiency) that lives in the gaps and takes away the dribble drive. It’s prone to cracking when facing a deluge from long distance, though, and Furman’s sharpshooting gives them more than a puncher’s chance. The Paladins rank 10th in eFG% at a red-hot 55.6%. They’re also 1st in 2PT% at 59.1%. Two-point defense is Virginia’s calling card (35th nationally, 46.5%), so this one is strength-on-strength. Getting hot from outside the paint will be Furman’s path to an upset.

6 Creighton vs. 11 NC State

It’s tough not to like Creighton to make a run. Outside of a bizarre slump where the Jays lost 8 of 11 games, they’ve looked like one of the best teams in the nation, going 18-4 the rest of the year. They sport a balanced attack at 25th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency (Torvik). The Wolfpack have been a quality squad as well, except when facing Clemson, who blew them out by a combined 51 points in 2 recent losses. One of the starkest statistical storylines I’ve found in the whole bracket could decide this one. The Wolfpack ranks 340th nationally in free throw attempt rate on offense at 25.3%. Creighton, on the other hand, is elite at guarding without fouling: they’re 2nd best nationally at a 19.8% defensive FTr. It’s going to be tough for NC State to steal one if they can’t get to the charity stripe.

3 Baylor vs. 14 UC Santa Barbara

Baylor recently hung a National Championship banner, but this year’s team looks a bit different. Why? Their defense is just…not good. Despite being the #2 team in Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency, they’re 99th on the other end. That includes poor rebounding (300th in DRB%) and alarming defense on close two-pointers (teams shoot a wildly efficient 72.7% against the Bears there, even if they only get there 30% of the time). If there’s any hope for an upset, it rides on UCSB getting to the cup often (a relatively high 40.8% of their FGA are close twos) and converting there often (they shoot an impressive 63.6% close to the rim). Do with this information what you will, but know only one 14-seed has defeated their 3 in the last 5 dances. Maybe a 14 is due, but it’s tough to pull the trigger when admiring Baylor’s offensive juggernaut. Also note that Baylor has the 2nd-best odds of advancing among 3-seeds on Torvik.

7 Missouri vs. 10 Utah State

Pop quiz! Who were the last 2 #10 seeds to be ranked in the top 20 on KenPom entering the dance*? One of them you can probably guess: Davidson entered the 2008 tournament 14th in KP and finished 11th. You know what happened there. The other was 2017 Wichita State, who lost by 3 to a 2-seed, Elite Eight team in Kentucky in the second round. Those were the only such cases I could find of this happening, but 2006 11-seed George Mason, who made the Final Four, entered 22nd, and 2014 11-seed Tennessee, ranked 14th pre-tourney, made the Sweet Sixteen. 10-seed 2002 Kent State, an Elite Eight participant, was similarly 24th pre-dance. These sorts of double-digit seeds are rare. On an unrelated note, Utah State currently sits at 18th. It’s tough to call the 26-win Aggies “underseeded” when they got punished by the committee for losing two Quad 4 games, but they’re underseeded strictly by the analytics. Missouri, on the other hand, is the most “extreme” team in the whole tournament. There’s a difference of 164 places in their defensive (174th) and offensive ratings (10th) on Torvik, second most among anyone in the bracket. They can shoot the lights out themselves but may struggle to get stops against an Aggies team that is 10th in offensive eFG% at 55.6%. The Aggies are a vastly better defense and are given a 64% chance of advancing on Torvik, which is just absurd for a 10 seed. Remember though, this isn’t advice.

*Author’s note: I take serious issue with retroactively using post-tournament KP/Torvik ratings. Be wary of some analysts, because teams naturally rise when they win a bunch of games, and it’s disingenuous to cite efficiency numbers after a deep run. That’s not predicting, it’s observing.

2 Arizona vs. 15 Princeton

What happens when you can’t force turnovers and the other team is really really good at playing really really fast? Nothing good, usually. Princeton had an impressive Ivy League title run after finally vanquishing nemesis Yale, but they force turnovers at a very low 14.5% clip on defense, ranking 349th out of 363 DI teams. Arizona, on the other hand, is 4th in offensive rating and plays at a frenetic pace, ranking 7th in adjusted tempo. A 15-seed has won in the last 2 tournaments, but Arizona is a stout 2 after winning an intense, high-level PAC-12 Championship Game.

EAST REGION

1 Purdue vs. 16 Texas Southern / Fairleigh Dickinson

Purdue won the B1G Championship and has 5 straight entering the dance, which is almost enough to make one forget the Boilermakers went 3-4 in February. However, have you considered all 7 foot 4 inches of Zach Edey? 22.3 PPG. 12.8 RPG. A 64.7 true shooting percentage. Your only unanimous All-American. Soon-to-be runaway NPOTY. To win, you have to make Edey give it up, then hope Purdue’s young backcourt turns the rock over. Their losses to Indiana (the 1st time), Rutgers, and Northwestern all occurred due to a turnover rate over 20% on offense. They also nearly lost to Ohio State and Maryland when doing so, escaping with 1 possession wins. Texas Southern, the only team dancing with a losing record after stealing the SWAC auto-bid, does not force many turnovers. However, FDU does; they’re 32nd nationally at a 21.4% rate. That and an ice-cold Boilermaker shooting performance are how this gets interesting.

8 Memphis vs. 9 Florida Atlantic

Memphis just knocked off the #2 overall seed Houston in the AAC title game, but the Tigers will have their hands full with an Owls team on a 7-game win streak that just dismantled a very good UAB squad in the C-USA title game. They’re also one of 4 teams in the field with at least 30 wins already, sitting at a pretty 31-3. Memphis excels at making you settle for threes; over 40% of their opponents’ shots come from beyond the arc. However, the good news for the Owls is they love the long ball: they shoot 37.2% from deep and happily take over 43% of their shots from downtown. If FAU is tickling the twine from outside, they are a very dangerous matchup for the American champs, or anyone, for that matter. Final note: this game is 1st for the entire 1st round in Torvik Thrill Quotient at 82. (I think either of these teams can and will hang with Purdue, so this is appointment television for me.)

5 Duke vs. 12 Oral Roberts

ORU captured plenty of hearts dancing all the way to the Sweet Sixteen as a 15 two years ago, and they retain half of the dynamic duo that powered the run in Max Abmas, who averages 22.2 a game. They retain the spread offensive principles and pick-and-pop scheme with Connor Vanover serving as Abmas’s stretch big. Abmas has logo range, and the Golden Eagles will use that to set very high screens and extend the defense as far to the perimeter as possible. ORU’s offense is elite with Abmas at the helm: they’re 7th in eFG% and 1st in turnover rate at only 13.2%. That could be the path to toppling Duke, who forces turnovers on only 16.6% of defensive possessions. The Golden Eagles will play fast (36th in tempo), while Duke will play a methodical game (286th in tempo) riding the post scoring of 7-footer Kyle Filipowski (15.4 PPG). Pay mind to who dictates the pace and turnover battle here. It will be tough for ORU to compete with Duke in a slower half-court game, but Abmas can and will cook in transition if things get sped up, forcing Jon Scheyer and Duke to go small-ball.

4 Tennessee vs. 13 Louisiana

Remember when Tennessee was #2 in the country, with wins over Texas and Kansas? Then beat Alabama after the Tide finally ascended to #1? Maybe not, because this is a “what have you done for me lately” game, and the Vols are reeling. They’ve lost 6 of 10 coming into the dance, including 2 on buzzer-beaters. They lost PG Zakai Zeigler, the embodiment of the team’s grind-it-out culture, to a torn ACL. However, momentum didn’t help them avoid a first weekend exit last year after winning the SEC Tournament, so maybe bad momentum won’t hurt them this time around. The other bad news? Rick Barnes has a losing record in the Big Dance at 25-26. The good at last? The Vols are AWESOME at defense. They hold opponents to a 42.4 eFG%, 2nd best in America. They also force plenty of turnovers, and their great offensive rebounding (5th in ORB%) can mask shooting issues (sometimes). That gives them the best chance among the 4-seeds at advancing on paper at Torvik with an 85% win probability. The Ragin’ Cajuns are an excellent offense, though, and have one other key advantage: they’re great at getting to the FT line, with a 37.7% offensive FTr. The Vols’ hyper-aggressive ball pressure can cause foul trouble; they’re 267th in defensive FTr, allowing opponents to shoot FTs for 34% of FGA. If Louisiana finds a way to shoot it as well as they usually do and gets to the line early and often, they can give the Vols another March to forget.

6 Kentucky vs. 11 Providence

If you want an “old-school” game decided in the half-court offense and the paint, here’s one for you. These teams have quite similar profiles. Both are exactly 21-11. Both are elite at offensive rebounding, at 2nd for the ‘Cats and 14th for the Friars. Neither likes shooting threes very much, either; only a hair over 30% of each’s shots come from beyond the arc. If this is a game decided down low, which it trends to be, reigning NPOTY Oscar Tshiebwe could be the star power that makes the difference; he’s also surely eager to avenge the ‘Cats’ loss to 15-seed St. Peter’s that soured a dominant campaign last season. However, note that Kentucky has relatively low odds of advancing for a 6-seed at 61% on Torvik. Also note 11-seeds have a winning record against 6s over the last 10 tourneys at 21-19. Also note that it’s been 19 years since an 11-seed failed to advance.

3 Kansas State vs. 14 Montana State

If you like free throws, here’s a game for you! Montana State is the 4th best team in the country at getting to the line according to FTr, while K-State is 45th. Moreover, both of these squads don’t defend well without fouling: they’re 282nd and 298th in defensive FTr, respectively. Expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe. I don’t like watching teams shoot free throws, but I love watching players sweat out free throws in a close game. If this game is indeed close, it will be due to Montana State turning the Wildcats over often; KSU is 298th with a 20% turnover rate on offense. When KSU gets careless, they play a dangerous game. However, they have the horses to run with anyone, with 2 3rd team All-Americans in Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.

7 Michigan State vs. 10 USC

January. February. Izzo? Since the dramatic 2019 Final Four run that cemented this T-shirt slogan, Sparty has lost double-digit games in every non-Covid-interrupted season and failed to reach the second weekend. If I were picking games off vibes, I’d say MSU feels “due” for another trademark Izzo run, but I’m not picking games here! The Spartans don’t attempt a lot of threes (a 32% attempt rate), but they’re exceptionally good at hitting them, converting 39.5% from range. 3 of their starters shoot over 40% from distance. That’s going to be crucial against a USC team that excels at defending twos. Even without a Mobley brother protecting the rim this year, the Trojans have the 2nd-best 2PT defense in the nation, allowing opponents to score on only 42.4% of attempts. MSU, by comparison, has a relatively low 47.7% success rate converting twos. That’s 279th nationally. USC wins by riding their strong defense (9th in eFG% against) and getting just enough production from star G Boogie Ellis, who averages 18.0 PPG. MSU wins by making it rain from the perimeter, because going inside on USC is very difficult.

2 Marquette vs. 15 Vermont

Vermont is the ever-dangerous low-seed that seems like they should have at least lucked into a deep run by now; they’ve made 4 out of the past 6 tournaments. The Catamounts got their worst seed during that stretch this time around, however, falling to the 15 line. Coincidentally, they’ve won 15 straight after an 8-10 start. This is Torvik’s most likely 2-15 upset at 18% odds for Vermont, but they’ll have to get past an explosive Marquette offense. The Golden Eagles have 9 straight of their own, boast the 8th-best eFG% nationally, and are the 3rd-best 2PT shooting team in America, converting at a 58.8% clip. That’s problematic for a Vermont team that’s mediocre at defending the 2; they allow opponents to convert on 50% of these attempts. 

MIDWEST REGION

1 Houston vs. 16 Northern Kentucky

For only the 3rd time in the history of KenPom (since 2002), and first time since 2006 the #1 team in adjusted efficiency is below a +30.0 net. (That’s essentially the plus-minus for a team per 100 possessions against the “average” NCAA team.) There’s still an NCAA Tournament to be played, but at +28.82, it seems unlikely Houston will climb above that threshold, barring a dominant run. Therefore, Houston, this year’s #1 on KP, is weaker than the average best team in college basketball for the last two decades. Even with this relative parity of the bracket this year, the Cougars are still the clear-cut top dog by the metrics entering March: Torvik also has them at #1. Marcus Sasser, Houston’s top scorer (17.7 PPG) and 1st team All-American, missed the AAC Championship loss to Memphis after sustaining an injury in the semifinal, but will likely be ready for the tournament. Northern Kentucky can force turnovers with their aggressive defense (13th nationally at 23.2%), but the Cougars are a perennial defensive powerhouse. I love the interesting matchup zone scheme of NKU, but like any zone, it’s vulnerable on the glass. The Norse struggle at defensive rebounding, giving up a 32.8 ORB% to opponents, which is especially problematic against a Houston team that has a dominant 37.1 ORB% (4th in DI). Expect a low-scoring game, with both teams in the bottom 20 in tempo nationally.

8 Iowa vs. 9 Auburn

In 13 years and 7 appearances in the dance, Iowa has never made the second weekend with Fran McCaffrey at the helm. They didn’t even get past the round of 32 as a 2-seed with NPOTY Luka Garza two years ago, and they fell to 12-seed Richmond last year in the first round. The problem has been defense, and it lingers. The Hawkeyes are the only team more unbalanced than Mizzou, with the #3 Torvik offense but #178 defense. They allow opponents to shoot at a 53.3 eFG%. Auburn, on the other hand, holds opponents to an elite 45.6 eFG%, good for 12th nationally. However, the Tigers also bowed out of the tournament in the round of 32 recently; they fell to Miami as a 2-seed last year. They do possess balance, ranking 38th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive. The ultimate “something’s gotta give” here, however, is the 3PT shot. Auburn is 312th in 3PT% (31.4%), while Iowa is 316th in 3PT defense (36.6%). Conventional wisdom says poor defense heats up streaky shooting, but Iowa can score with anyone.

5 Miami vs. 12 Drake

Experience is always the wildcard when predicting March performance. There’s essentially no quantitative conclusions on how much it increases a team’s odds. However, common sense says it should matter; it makes one more poised and confident in a high-pressure environment. If you subscribe to that theory, this matchup will intrigue you. Drake is the “oldest” team in all of DI basketball, while Miami is fresh off an Elite Eight run last March. Drake doesn’t allow opponents to get to the rim often; the Bulldogs’ opponents only attempt 29.1% of their shots close to the basket. That could be crucial against an explosive Miami offense built on guards’ back-cuts to the rim to spread the defense. The ‘Canes shoot an elite 64.8% on close 2PTs. If Miami is getting inside with ease, it’s tough to see a path for Drake. However, the ‘Canes have only a 52% chance of advancing on Torvik, which is by far the lowest of any 5-seed. They recently lost big man Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG / 9.7 REB) to an ankle injury, though we could still see him Thursday. Miami also doesn’t play good defense (136th in efficiency), and Drake is a balanced, experienced club, only 8 spots below Miami in Torvik’s overall efficiency (38th vs. 46th). They’ve also won 13 of 14 and avenged their only loss in that span by drubbing Bradley in the MVC title bout.

4 Indiana vs. 13 Kent State

The Hoosiers limp into this one having lost 4 of their last 8, despite sweeping their archrival Purdue. Their reward is a date with the MAC Champion Golden Flashes, one of the most aggressive defenses in college basketball. They rank 20th in turnover rate forced and 36th in opponent eFG%, at the cost of foul issues (their opponents have a 38.8% FTr). Indiana’s shot selection may decide this one. They shoot more mid-range shots than almost anyone, with 33.6% of their FGs coming in the long 2PT range. Kent State, on the other hand, forces opponents to shoot outside more than nearly anyone; their opponents take 40.7% of shots beyond the arc, but they shoot a very poor 30.9% from there. If Indiana settles for tough shots and can’t pound it inside with 1st team All-American F Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 PPG), they may have trouble. They’re also mediocre at avoiding turnovers. Finally, note that Indiana has the lowest odds of advancing among 4-seeds at 64%; they’re the only 4 with a less than 70% chance of victory per Torvik.

6 Iowa State vs. 11 Mississippi State / Pitt

Iowa State just loves playing defense. They rode a top 10 ranked unit on KenPom last season to the Sweet Sixteen, and they’re in the top 10 once again entering this March at 8th. However, expect a drastically different game depending on whoever wins the play-in. Mississippi State is the most extreme defense-first team in the field, with a defensive efficiency (9th) 168 spots above their offense (177th). Both teams also rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate. If MSU comes out of Dayton, these two may not combine to reach triple digits. Pitt is probably the matchup ISU prefers: the Panthers can score (29th in Torvik’s AdjO), but they aren’t good at forcing opponents to turn it over (16.7 TOV%), which is often a problem for the Cyclones (285th on offense at 19.8%). If that’s the matchup, it’s strength-on-strength with a great offense and defense colliding. Update: Pitt defeated MSU 60-59 to advance.

3 Xavier vs. 14 Kennesaw State

Xavier is one of the best offenses in the nation, ranking 10th in eFG% at 55.6% and 3rd in 3PT% at 39.5%. However, the Owls of Kennesaw State can shoot the rock too; they’re 33rd in 3PT% at 37.1%. That is the path to an upset against a Xavier team that experiences lapses defensively. DePaul hung 84 and 8 threes on the Musketeers in the Big East Tournament, while Providence hung 89 and 11 triples on them just a week prior. Xavier just barely escaped those games. Overall, they’re a poor 168th in eFG% defensively. However, that’s still better than the Owls, who rank 212th. This one is trending to be high scoring, but it only gets interesting for KSU with an offensive implosion by the Musketeers.

7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Penn State

Penn State’s offensive game plan is mostly “Let Javon Pickett cook,” which has worked quite well as of late. The Nittany Lions made it all the way to the B1G Championship and had Purdue on the ropes before falling late. Led by their All-American triple-double threat, they’re 13th in eFG% and 5th in TOV%, taking great care of the rock. However, this matchup has the wild distinction of pitting the 2nd-best offensive FTr in the nation (Texas A&M, 45.9%) against the 3rd-worst (PSU, 21.4%). The Aggies also made their conference championship game, and if you believe in momentum, they’ve won 10 of their last 12. They can advance by riding their strong offensive rebounding and free throws. The Nittany Lions win by shooting just well enough to overcome the possessions they lose.

2 Texas vs. 15 Colgate

Much like our last 15-seed, Vermont, Colgate feels like a team that should’ve gone deep by now. The Raiders have made 4 of the past 5 tournaments. However, they drew an incredibly tough Texas team in the round of 64. The Raiders will light it up from long distance as the best 3PT shooting team (40.9%!!!) and eFG% team (58.6%) in America. The Horns are a solid defensive team in terms of eFG% against (47.8%), and they’ve held their last 4 opponents below 45% en route to the Big XII title. That included holding Kansas to a 4-17 performance from 3PT land. Colgate is fun once again, but with a top 20 offense and defense by the metrics, Texas may have too much firepower. The Raiders have to find a way to maintain their otherworldly shooting against a long and athletic Horns defense to have a chance.

WEST Region

1 Kansas vs. 16 Howard

If you’ve watched any Kansas game this year, you’ve likely heard the reigning national champs have the most Quadrant 1 wins of any team in the nation at a 17-7 record in those games. They also haven’t lost a single non-Q1 game, going 27-7 overall. Howard has made their first NCAA Tournament since 1992, but they have a daunting task awaiting them. If there’s any path for the Bison, they’re a great offensive rebounding team (33.8 ORB%) in part thanks to their love of the long ball (they shoot plenty of treys at a 37% clip). Kansas, on the other hand, is a relatively poor defensive rebounding team: they give up a 28.3 ORB%, a mediocre 174th nationally.

8 Arkansas vs. 9 Illinois

Picking 8-9 matchups between double-digit loss Power 6 teams are the bane of any bracketologist’s existence, but, personally, I love low-scoring basketball games. Here’s another likely one: both of these teams rank top 30 in eFG% defense and are great at defending the 2: the Hogs hold opponents to 46.9% and the Illini hold opponents to 45.3% from inside the arc. Both these teams are also outside the top 300 in 3PT%. However, here’s the key difference: less than 30% of Arkansas’s shots come from outside, while Illinois shoots 41.9% of their shots from 3PT land. That could be the statistical storyline to follow here; the Hogs are top 25 in 3PT defense (30.6% against), while the Illini allow opponents to connect on a mediocre 33.6% of triples.

5 St. Mary’s vs. 12 VCU

Once again, the West pits 2 top 30 eFG% defenses against each other. VCU’s havoc has its match in a St. Mary’s squad who can defend with anyone. The Gaels are one of the best rebounding teams in America, at 45th in ORB% and 2nd in DRB%, allowing opponents to collect only 21.4% of their misses. They also don’t have turnover issues: their guards all boast turnover rates below 13.8%, which is of course crucial against VCU’s pressure. All of these factors could help the Gaels play to their extremely slow pace, ranking 356th in tempo, which would take away the transition opportunities and extra possessions VCU loves to win. However, the Gaels are coming off a clunker offensive performance in the WCC Championship against Gonzaga where they posted a 37.0 eFG%. You don’t need me to tell you that you can’t beat anyone without making shots.

4 UConn vs. 13 Iona

Rick Pitino may not be head coach at Iona much longer, as rumors of his exit to St. John’s were swirling quite literally during the Gaels’ games in the MAAC Tournament. If he’s still focused on the Gaels, he has his hands full with a UConn team that looks much better than the usual 4-seed. The Huskies were #1 for a spell this season, and they’re still the #4 team in the nation on both KenPom and Torvik. The most pertinent stat here is that Connecticut is the best offensive rebounding team in America (39.2%), while Iona is outside the top 300 in keeping opponents off the offensive glass (30.8 ORB% against).

6 TCU vs. 11 Arizona State / Nevada

Anotha one. Broken record time: you like defense? TCU is a very obvious defense-first squad, as are both of their potential First Four opponents, ASU and Nevada. We’ll update this one once the participants are finalized. Nevada is an interesting matchup for the Horned Frogs, as they avoid turning the ball over (23rd in TOV%), while the Frogs are 23rd-best at forcing turnovers. Nevada also wouldn’t be able to exploit TCU’s weakness on the offensive glass (they allow a DRB% over 30), as the Wolfpack collects only 23.1% of their misses, good for 331st nationally. An Arizona State team that’s 6th in 2PT defense would force the Frogs to take a lot more outside jumpers, which can be a serious issue: TCU hits only 30.6% of their 3PTs, which is bottom 30 nationally. Either way, it looks like another low-scoring outing in the West.

3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Grand Canyon

Gonzaga is really good at offense. Ho-hum. The Zags are #1 in Torvik and KenPom’s offensive efficiency metrics, as they seemingly always are, at the hands of the 2nd-best eFG% in America (58.5%) and unwillingness to turn the ball over (14.6 TOV%) despite quick tempo. Grand Canyon, making their 2nd appearance in the last 3 tournaments, is actually quite good by eFG% against, ranking 32nd nationally at 47.2%. However, you need to force turnovers to slow down the Zags, and the Lopes struggle to do so; they’re bottom 25 in the country, forcing them on only 16% of opponents’ possessions.

7 Northwestern vs. 10 Boise State

This is starting to feel like the “Rock Fight” region of the NCAA tournament, with another matchup pitting 2 top-25 defenses against one another. The Broncos are 22nd on Torvik, while the Wildcats are 14th. They take different approaches to get there: Northwestern does so with hyper-aggressive pressure, forcing many turnovers (26th at 21.7%), while Boise relies on elite rebounding (16th in DRB%) and solid eFG% defense (47.3%). The key issue is 3PT shooting. The Wildcats shoot only 32.1% from distance but take over 40% of shots from out there. The Broncos are 29th best at defending the 3-ball, however, allowing opponents to hit only 31%. If that trend holds, the Broncos can win their first ever NCAA Tournament game (0-8). However, Northwestern is ferocious and not to be underestimated. They won their round of 64 game in their only other NCAA appearance (2017) before falling in a close one to the national runner-up in Gonzaga.

2 UCLA vs. 15 UNC-Asheville

The Rock Fight Region (I’m just rolling with it now) gives us the best defense in the nation by efficiency in UCLA against one of the most gifted scorers in UNCA big man Drew Pember. He’s averaging 21.2 a game and shooting 37.3% from deep as the stretch 5 in a spread offense that is, in my editorialized opinion, oh-so-much fun. UCLA is great at defending in terms of eFG% and 3PT against at 27th and 31st respectively. Conversely, those are UNCA’s strengths; they have a 53.6 eFG% (34th) and 38.8 3PT% (6th). Even without a key defensive cog in Jaylen Clark, the Bruins are still incredibly scary as the #3 team in the nation on KenPom and Torvik. Their core has made a Final Four and Sweet Sixteen the past 2 tournaments, only losing to the national runners-up in both of those outings. Here’s the one piece of real advice I’ll give you to end the article: it’s worth staying up for the 10:05 Thursday nightcap to watch two of the most entertaining teams in the whole darn thing collide.

Thanks for reading! Expect another (not so long-winded) one next week to look at our 8 second weekend matchups and the potential Elite Eight.

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@ VCU, 1/18

Davidson 71, VCU 60

This was an extremely back-and-forth affair in the first half, with both teams shooting quite well from the floor. The ‘Cats and Rams exchanged the lead a total of 7 times before the intermission; however, Maddie Plank’s go-ahead three with 0:27 to play in Q2 would give Davidson the lead for good. Plank hit two threes in the midst of a 15-4 run that lasted from 1:30 in the 2Q to 5:59 in the 3Q. That run and a 22-13 advantage in the 3rd frame would prove to be decisive, though VCU managed to trim the deficit to two possessions in the 4th, sparked by Sarah Te-Biasu’s 30-point outing.

Stats of Note

Each of Davidson’s starters scored at least 8 points in this one. Issy Morgan led the way with 18, her high for the season up to that point (it wouldn’t stay that way for long!). It was the 4th double-double of the season for Elle Sutphin, who contributed 16 and 10 plus a strong defensive showing with 3 steals and 2 blocks. Adelaide Fuller also recorded her season high with 9 points on a perfect 4/4 shooting line. 7 of Rosie Deegan’s 13 came in Q3, helping spark Davidson’s winning edge much like Maddie Plank’s aforementioned triples. Overall, it was a dominant offensive performance on the road. While the long ball proved big for Davidson, this game was won in the post: the ‘Cats held a decisive 40-26 edge on points in the paint. This was the 6th time this season Davidson shot better than 50% from the floor, shooting at a 54.9% clip. They also clamped VCU’s offense during their big 2nd and 3rd quarters, holding the Rams to 30.8% shooting in those two frames.

@ Duquesne, 1/22

Davidson 66, Duquesne 65

In a crucial game for A10 positioning, this one was every bit as thrilling as the final score indicates, and then some! It was a similar story to VCU early on, as the ‘Cats built a large advantage around halftime sparked by some exceptional shooting. Issy Morgan was once again phenomenal; she hit 4 threes en route to 16 points in the first half, enough to tie her career high in triples. The lead got as large as 11, bolstered by another run centered around halftime: the ‘Cats outscored the Dukes 13-4 over 5 minutes of play to stretch the advantage to 44-33. However, Duquesne trimmed the deficit to 4 as Q3 came to its conclusion. Their comeback would continue until they finally recaptured the lead, setting up an electric finish. With the game knotted at 56, the Dukes’ Tess Myers hit a go-ahead three, only to be immediately answered by a Maddie Plank triple. But the two weren’t done with the fireworks. Myers hit another three, only to be answered by a Plank layup and ANOTHER clutch Plank three on Davidson’s ensuing possession, putting Davidson up 64-62 with 0:16 to play. With the game on the line for the Dukes, Myers put up another shot from the wing, nailed her third triple in a row, and got a foul call! Fortunately for the ‘Cats, she missed her four-point play opportunity, leaving it 65-64 Dukes, giving Davidson a chance to steal the win. Elle Sutphin got the ball in the post, made a strong move to the rim, and was rewarded with a trip to the free throw line. She sank both, leaving Duquesne with only two seconds to muster a shot. Forcing a well-defended Ayanna Townsend to miss at the buzzer, Davidson stunned the Dukes 66-65!

Stats of Note

This was the sternest defensive test of Davidson’s road trip, and they handled it brilliantly, continuing their offensive success from the previous two games. Despite Duquesne only allowing their opponents to shoot at a 40.9 eFG% on the season entering the game, the ‘Cats hit 11 threes at a 40.7% clip. That was good for a 48.2 eFG%, well above the Dukes’ average allowed. Issy Morgan was your Cats Stats Player of the Game, and for good reason: she set a new career high with her 20 point outing! However, Davidson’s couldn’t have done it without Maddie Plank’s clutch play. Her 8 points in the closing minutes kept Davidson alive. She scored 15 in total and hit 3 threes of her own. Elle Sutphin was, of course, instrumental as well, scoring 13 and connecting on the 2 go-ahead free throws. Rosie Deegan also broke into double figures at 10, and Mallorie Haines continued her hot shooting, hitting a three for the 4th consecutive game.

The Big Picture & Other Tidbits

• We talked a lot about Issy Morgan’s huge week, and her contributions during the win streak have been massive:
  • a new career high of 20!
  • an average of 16.7/4/3 per game
  • 57.7% shooting (78.8 TS%!) and 7/15 on threes
  • 22 consecutive made FTs going back to the NC State game on December 15
• You probably thus won’t be surprised to learn Morgan won her first career A10 Player of the Week award. Congratulations to her!
• Her play has certainly helped to elevate an already great offense to another level. As a team, Davidson has caught fire following their pause in play. During the win streak, the ‘Cats have:
  • Hit 28 threes at exactly a 40% rate
  • Shot a highly efficient 52.5 eFG%
  • Gone 32/35 from the charity stripe, good for an incredible 91.4 FT%!
  • Averaged 70.0 PPG
• Within conference play, Davidson sits at 4th in FG% (41.6%) and 3rd in 3PT% (36.4%). With everyone at last healthy, the Davidson offense is just starting to show the heights it’s capable of.
• Elle Sutphin sits 5th in the A10 in scoring at 17.0 PPG, and she’s scored in double figures in 8 consecutive games. In fact, she’s been held to single digits in only 2 of her appearances this season! She also sits at 10th in rebounding at 7.5 RPG. Rosie Deegan sits just outside the top 10 in scoring, at 13.4 PPG in 11th. Both are trending to be all-conference selections.
• With their 3-game win streak, Davidson now sits at 3-2 in the A10 and 10-9 on the season. This puts Davidson at 5th in the A10 standings, only one spot outside of the top 4 double bye position at the A10 tournament! They’re trailing La Salle (4-2) by only 0.5 games, with a chance to extend the win streak this week against St. Louis (2-4) and George Mason (3-4). Getting two wins this week to reach 5-2 within conference play would be pivotal. St. Louis will be in Belk Wednesday night at 7 PM, with a trip to Mason on Saturday tipping at 3 PM. Both games this week will be on ESPN+.

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vs. Austin Peay – Monday 11/21

FINAL: Davidson 62, Austin Peay 41

The ‘Cats dominated from start to finish against the Governors. Maddie Plank made her first career start in a Davidson uniform; it seems she replaced Chloe Welch, who did not play in this contest. And Sallie Schutz got her second consecutive start after Adelaide Fuller was out for the second consecutive game. Despite the missing players, the ‘Cats looked unphased. The ‘Cats got a 3-2 lead just over a minute into the first quarter and never looked back. Davidson did a great job preventing Austin Peay from getting baskets. Their previous low for points allowed in a quarter was 8. And in the first three quarters they allowed 6, 8, and 5 points, respectively. Austin Peay only made one three and two free throws for the entire third quarter. With a 28-point lead going into the fourth quarter, the ‘Cats cruised to victory.

vs. UIC – Tuesday 11/22

FINAL: UIC 63, Davidson 55

This game was extremely back and forth, with 16 lead changes. The game was tied at 28 at the half. UIC built a 6-point lead going into the fourth, but Davidson went on an 8-0 run to retake the lead, where Elle Sutphin scored 6 of the 8 points. After the run, the score sat at 51-49, but UIC answered with a 3. And each of the next four made buckets in the game caused lead changes. Unfortunately, Maddie Plank’s jumper with 4:23 left would be last time Davidson scored in the game. UIC finished on a 9-0 to walk away victorious.

vs. Fairleigh Dickinson – Wednesday 11/23

FINAL: Fairleigh Dickinson 49, Davidson 43

Davidson fell in another close game, this time to the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights. Head coach Gayle Coats Fulks was unable to lead her team to victory over the Knights, the team she played for from 2003-2007. Chloe Welch and Adelaide Fuller still did not suit up for this one, and they were now joined by Issy Morgan, meaning three of the five opening-day starters were inactive. But Davidson got out to a solid lead; they were up 13-5 with just over three minutes left in the first quarter. However, the ‘Cats couldn’t score for the rest of quarter. The Knights went on a quick 12-0 run, scoring 12 points in 6 posessions. The Knights now had the lead, and though the ‘Cats would take 1-point leads twice later in the game, they were never able to build anything substantial. They stayed in it the whole way, trailing by just 1 with 3 minutes left in the game. But unfortunately they couldn’t get the win. Coach Fulks graciously congratulated her former team in the FDU locker room after the game.

at Appalachian St – Sunday 11/27

FINAL: App State 84, Davidson 82

Surely after losing two close games the ‘Cats would be able to take a close game of their own, right? Unfortunately, that was not the story, and the way Davidson would lose could not have been more dramatic. Davidson had a 25-16 lead after the first, but App State quickly got the lead early into the second. The Mountaineers stretched their lead to 10 in a dominant second quarter. The ‘Cats were slowly able to chip away at their lead, however, and only trailed by 4 going into the final quarter of play. Every time Davidson would pull closer to retaking the lead in this quarter, App State would sucessfully hold them off. Elle Sutphin got the ‘Cats back within 1 with a minute and a half left. App State was up 82-81; it was now or never for Davidson to take the lead. But Davidson couldn’t score on their next few possesions. App State led 84-81 after a couple trips to the free throw line, and Davidson had 4 seconds to tie the game.

Rosie Deegan got the ball after the inbound. She put up a three. It missed, but Tomisin Adenupe got a strong offensive rebound. Adenupe hoisted it back up from the paint. The ball bounced up off the rim and went in! And the ref signaled to count the basket and send Adenupe to the free-throw line for an and-1! Adenupe, who was 13-25 from the line on her career at the time, had the chance to tie the game and send it to overtime. The refs went to the monintor, and the commentators were under the impression that they were checking to see if Adenupe got the ball off in time. The ball was very close to her fingertips when the buzzer sounded. The refs erased the basket, but not because she didn’t get it off in time. They said she was bumped on the floor when getting the rebound. So instead of shooting one basket to tie the game, she had two free-throw attempts that would only be able to get the ‘Cats within 1. She made the first and missed the second, likely on purpose. But the ‘Cats couldn’t get the rebound and came up short of victory again.

Analysis

Davidson being out so many players is clearly a major storyline in their early season. Cameron Tabor hasn’t played since she appeared to get hurt during the season opener against High Point. Adelaide Fuller has been out since Davidson’s home opener against Duke. Chloe Welch has missed four consecutive games. And Issy Morgan has missed two consecutive games. Not to mention, Peyton Carter, who played just over 3 minutes per game in her junior season, is out this year. Given that Davidson star Rosie Deegan missed time in each of the last two seasons, it seems Davidson has not been able to catch a break for really three seasons in a row now. And given how much young talent Davidson had on their bench going into this season, it’s unfortunate that they haven’t been able to take advantage of it. On the flipside, this has provided these young players oppurtunities they would not have had otherwise. Sophomores Tominsin Adenupe, Sallie Schutz (redshirt), and Maddie Plank (redshirt) have each found time in the starting lineup. Mallorie Haines, also a sophomore, has seen significant minutes off the bench. These minutes could prove to be very valuable. And regardless of what has happened up to this point this season, one thing is for certain: Davidson is 0-0 in conference play. The ‘Cats have plenty of time to get things together come conference season.

And there were still some bright spots in this week’s games. The Wildcat’s defense was stout against Austin Peay. In addition to allowing 19 points in the first three quarters, they held Austin Peay to a 28.1% effective field goal percentage. This is the best they’ve held an opponent to this season, with their second best being the 43.2% they held Fairleigh Dickinson to on Wednesday. The ‘Cats clearly can compete even without some key players; it just seemed they lost some steam near the end of their losses this week. Given that they played three games in three days and another game later in the week, this seems understandable. One other bright spot is that Davidson signed Chloe Oliver, a 5-8 guard out of Quebec earlier this week!

The ‘Cats play two games this week. On Wednesday, they play Wofford at 11 AM, and on Sunday they play Jacksonville State at 3 PM. Both games will be aired on ESPN+. We will see if any players who were out can return to action.

The post Davidson WBB Weekly Recap: Shorthanded ‘Cats Struggle first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

Recap – Davidson 89, San Francisco 80

The ‘Cats came out strong, building a 10-5 edge early following several strong possessions. However, the Dons would quickly get hot from long range, building a 24-14 lead ten minutes into the contest on a 19-4 run. They shot a torrid 6 of 10 from three to open the game, but the ‘Cats defensive persistence would soon pay off. USF would miss their next 5 3PT attempts, recording none from the 7:52 mark to roughly a minute remaining in the first. The ‘Cats would take advantage to pound the ball inside and tie the game at 34: they erased the deficit by getting in the lane and to the free throw line, not needing any threes for the rest of the first half. The Dons recaptured a slim 40-36 advantage at the break.

The second half would prove to be a standout showing for Davidson! The ‘Cats offense was firing on all cylinders as they outscored USF 53-40 in the second frame. The first 15 minutes would be a back-and-forth affair, with the Dons never able to stretch the lead past 5. The knockout blow would come with 5 minutes to play when Reed Bailey nailed a go-ahead triple off a Des Watson assist! The ‘Cats would never trail after this shot; it put them up 69-67 and started a 15-5 run to build a 9 point lead. 

Check the Stats

Foster Loyer would prove clutch once again, scoring 18 of his game-high 30 in the second! He added an impressive 7 assists and 5 boards for a monster 30/5/7 line. He also had 3 steals and a block! However, his efficiency was arguably even more eye-popping: 87.4 TS% and 81.3 eFG%. His performance was almost overshadowed by Reed Bailey’s emergence. We’d seen flashes of Bailey’s potential, but he put it all together and played a masterful game Friday, scoring 20 points for the first time in his Davidson career. He needed only 11 shot attempts, going a perfect 5/5 from the FT line and hitting the clutch triple late. That amounted to a stellar 75.8 TS%. The other two big contributors on offense were Des Watson and Sam Mennenga, building on their momentum from Charleston and scoring 14 and 15, respectively. This was a truly great team offensive performance against a strong opponent and the best of the young season for Davidson. The ‘Cats had a team 64.9 eFG% and went a near-perfect 28/33 (85%) from the charity stripe. On defense, they held down the paint and forced the Dons to attempt 51.7% of their shots from outside; following the hot start, USF only shot 23.8% from long range. Davidson getting inside and drawing free throws at a 0.596 rate proved crucial: the ‘Cats outscored the Dons by a dominant 40-26 margin in the paint. They also took care of the basketball and won the turnover battle 12-10, scoring 17 off them to USF’s 11. All in all, it’s tough to find anything the ‘Cats could’ve done better on offense. They only had 2 offensive rebounds, but when you shoot the ball so well, you don’t get many opportunities! That’s just suffering from success.

Final Thoughts, Around the League, and a Look Ahead

• Weekly Foster Loyer Scoring Update: as of Monday, he’s back in first place in the A10 in scoring and tied for fifth in the nation, with 22.7 PPG! Of the top 9 nationally in PPG, he’s the only player with an eFG above 60%, at 60.1% currently! Within the A10, he’s also now third in assists per game (5.0) and fourth in steals (1.9).

• Reed Bailey won A10 Rookie of the Week despite only playing one game! That’s his first time (of hopefully several) earning that honor.

• Davidson still has the best record in the A10 at 6-1. That’s tied with Fordham, though according to Kenpom’s metrics the Rams have played one of the five easiest schedules in the nation thus far. The ‘Cats, by comparison, rank 155th in SOS. Some other teams around the league had a difficult week. Preseason favorites Dayton struggled, going 0-3 at the Battle for Atlantis, while Saint Louis fell just short late on the road against Auburn. However, St. Bonaventure notched an impressive W over previously unbeaten Notre Dame on Friday! The A10 also went 4-0 in non-conference play Saturday, which was the first time the league has been unbeaten with at least 3 teams in action this year. Davidson’s lone loss, Charleston, continues to impress. The Cougars were the third team outside of the AP Top 25 Monday among others receiving votes.

• Davidson is home against Charlotte Tuesday in the Battle for the Hornets’ Nest before traveling to face Delaware this Saturday. The 49ers started 4-0 but were handed their first loss against the A10’s own UMass Minutemen. They dropped to 5-2 with a blowout 70-49 loss to Detroit Mercy. Despite this loss, the 49ers would still be a nice win for Davidson’s resume: they rank 145th currently in Kenpom. They will challenge the ‘Cats with a pack line defense and methodical pace on offense, ranking 361st of 363 teams in adjusted tempo. This combination has the 49ers holding their opponents to a mere 55.0 PPG, good for 11th in Division I. Huntersville native guard Brice Williams is their only scorer in double figures, averaging 11.4 PPG and shooting an impressive 42.1% from three. This will probably be a slow-paced game won by methodical half-court offense either way. Davidson won this matchup by 17 last year on the road. Delaware also fell to Davidson in last year’s season opener by 22. However, they made the NCAA Tournament after winning the CAA and earning a 15 seed. They’re 3-3 on the season with a 183 Kenpom ranking. The Blue Hens do have an impressive win over Colgate, a program who’s made 3 of the last 4 Big Dances, so expect a good road test!

• The ‘Cats play 7:00 on Tuesday in Belk and 2:00 Saturday on the road! The games will be broadcast on ESPN+ and FloHoops, respectively.

The post Davidson MBB Weekly Recap: ‘Cats Get Revenge Against San Francisco! first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

The ‘Cats made the trek south to Charleston this past weekend, with the chance to tangle with some quality competition. While the start was not ideal, the ‘Cats turned things around quickly and finished with a 2-1 showing. Last week, we noted that this result would look great on the ‘Cats’ resume; Davidson now has the best record (5-1) thus far in the A10. We’ll discuss the A10 as a whole later, but for now, let’s dive into the ‘Cats’ results!

vs. College of Charleston

Final – Davidson 66, Charleston 89

This game was one where the ‘Cats, like a couple other teams in the tournament, were blitzed by Charleston’s hot shooting on their home floor early. However, this game really only fell out of reach for Davidson in the final 10 minutes. The ‘Cats were on a 17-4 run that cut the Cougars’ lead down to one possession with under 12 minutes to play. From that point on, Charleston went on a 18-2 run of their own for the next 5 minutes that brought the score from 54-51 to 72-53. With seven minutes to go, Davidson lacked the time to mount a serious threat. Sam Mennenga led the ‘Cats in both scoring and rebounding, with a line of 19/8/2 (PTS/RB/AST).

Stats of Note

The ‘Cats main issue in this game was not inefficiency but lost possessions. Charleston took 72 shots to Davidson’s 51, despite the two teams putting up similar efficiency from the floor: Davidson was 43.1% from the field and 36.4% from deep, whereas Charleston was 45.8% and 37.5%, respectively. The Cougars hit 12 threes to Davidson’s 4, however, and Davidson only attempted 11 threes in total. Davidson’s three-point attempt rate in the next two games was 43.1% and 37.8%, but against the Cougars, it was a mere 21.6%. Charleston did well to force Davidson to go inside, and their frantic pace made the most of winning the turnover (17-12) and rebounding (42-32) battles. The Cougars went on to win the tournament on their home floor, beating two other 2022 NCAA tournament participants in Colorado State and Virginia Tech. Their KenPom ranking rose from 188th to 126th with this impressive showing.

vs. South Carolina

Final – Davidson 69, South Carolina 60

The ‘Cats played arguably their most complete game of the season against U of SC. Aside from a painful scoring drought to end the first half that saw them trailing by 4 at the break, the ‘Cats lead for most of this game. The fun started when Des Watson came off the bench when Davidson trailed early and quickly erased the 6-point deficit with 9 quick points on 4 consecutive makes. The ‘Cats went on an 18-5 run during this stretch. The decisive run came in the second half, however, when Foster Loyer exploded for 12 points on 4 threes in the midst of a lengthy 28-10 run. Davidson would never trail following the 13:10 mark of the second.

Stats of Note

Davidson held South Carolina’s basketball team to a lower scoring output than their football team the following evening (63). The ‘Cats showed up with a strong defensive performance that resolved many of their issues from the previous game. South Carolina had a meager 43.1 eFG%. G Chico Carter went off, scoring 6 threes, but aside from him, Davidson held the Gamecocks to a mere 29.1% from the field, with no one else even making a three on 12 attempts. Highly touted prospect GG Jackson was kept in check, guarded primarily by Watson, going for only 12 points despite averaging 19.5 in the Gamecocks’ other tournament games. For the ‘Cats, the offense really began to click in the second half. They capitalized on the mistakes they forced on defense, with 12 of their 14 points off turnovers coming in the second half. Foster Loyer and Grant Huffman each had 2 steals and drew multiple offensive fouls. Davidson won the turnover battle 16-13. Sam Mennenga played another strong game with 15 points and 6 boards, but Loyer’s eruption in the second half gave him a team-high 18, 16 of which came after the break. Connor Kochera was also in double figures; his contributed 12/3/2 with a good defensive showing against U of SC’s wings. South Carolina ended the tournament 0-3, but any convincing Power 6 win on a neutral floor looks nice on Davidson’s resume. The ‘Cats have now won 3 straight against SEC competition.

vs. Old Dominion

Final – Davidson 66, ODU 61

The ‘Cats finished the tournament 2-1 with a solid performance against ODU. While the ‘Cats didn’t have their smoothest day offensively, they never trailed in this game following 11 minutes to play in the first half. The only serious threat was a 16-6 ODU run early in the second that cut the lead to one, but Davidson quickly stretched it back up to 9 again afterward. The end of the game saw ODU have some success pressing Davidson, but the ‘Cats were composed and kept the game out of reach. Sam Mennega ended the same with a powerful slam dunk to figuratively slam the door shut on the Monarchs.

Stats of Note

Sam Mennenga scored a career-high 23 in this game, capping off an outstanding Charleston Classic run. Foster Loyer also had his best game of the tournament, going for 22/10/3 on 70.3 TS%. David Skogman deserves huge praise as well, playing his best game as a Wildcat thus far with 13 points and a flawless 7-for-7 performance from the FT line. That trio combined for 58 of Davidson’s 66 points. On defense, Sean Logan shined in a productive 8 minutes of action, recording two blocks. His role in the rotation is trending to increase in volume soon. Defensively, the ‘Cats made ODU struggle to the tune of a 41.4 eFG%. The biggest reason this game was within reach for the Monarchs was their proficiency on the offensive glass. They entered as a solid offensive rebounding team, and they ended the game with 22 more FG attempts than the ‘Cats due largely to their 16-7 advantage in offensive boards. As a whole, however, they only edged the ‘Cats by 2 rebounds: 37-35.

Final Thoughts and a Look Ahead

– Sam Mennenga was deservingly named to the all-tournament team! In total, he averaged 19 points and 7 rebounds per game on a very efficient 62.5 TS%.

– Foster Loyer (21.5 PPG) is now 20th in the nation in scoring and 2nd in the A10 behind GW’s James Bishop (23.8 PPG). Hopefully, this section will become a weekly update as Loyer chases the A10 scoring title. Within the conference, he’s also 5th in assists per game (4.7) and 11th in steals, averaging 1.7. He’s also been Davidson’s leading rebounder twice, with two doubles-doubles already on the season.

– Davidson currently has the best winning percentage in the A10 at 5-1. Several other teams have only one loss, but unfortunately for the league, some of those losses have been ugly: Saint Louis struggled against Maryland, Dayton was upset by UNLV, and UMass lost at home against Towson. However, all three of these teams have otherwise looked strong. Frank Martin’s Minutemen of UMass had a particularly great showing, winning the Myrtle Beach Invitational with victories over Colorado, Murray St., and Charlotte. St. Louis finished with a solid 2-1 showing last week with wins over Memphis and Providence.

– Davidson has a quiet Thanksgiving week before the biggest out-of-conference games in Belk this season: a Black Friday showdown against undefeated San Francisco (6-0) before a Tuesday night home game against Charlotte (4-1). The ‘Cats can avenge last year’s loss at the Chase Center against the Dons, who look to be on par with last year’s eventual 10-seeded squad. USF just emerged victorious at the Hall of Fame Classic with wins over Northern Iowa and Wichita State. On KenPom, the Dons rank 87th, while Davidson sits at 120th. They like to play quickly, ranking 22nd in adjusted tempo, so the ‘Cats need to play more to their slower pace (300th currently) and control the defensive glass. Khalil Shabazz leads USF in scoring, assists, and steals with a line of 15.8/5.4/4.0 and 2.6 steals on 62.9 TS%. He’s one of the premier guards in college basketball. Davidson will have the advantage of being at home and well-rested, as USF has played twice already this week and will be making a long trek over the next few days from their tournament in Kansas City, back home, and then to Davidson. The game tips off at 2:00 on ESPN+ in Belk Arena Friday!

The post Davidson MBB Weekly Recap: Wildcats Go 2-1 in Charleston first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

Davidson had an unusually busy first week of the season, with 3 games in total. The ‘Cats now have a daunting test waiting with 3 games in 4 days at the Charleston Classic starting on Thursday, but before breaking down that bracket, let’s take a deeper dive into this week’s results!

vs. Guilford – Monday 11/7

Recap – Davidson 87, Guilford 64

The ‘Cats opened at home against D3 Guilford with 3 new faces in the starting lineup and Matt McKillop in his first game as head coach. Guilford came off a season where they played close games against multiple D1 opponents. Davidson walked away with a 87-64 triumph on the heels of a 30 point game from Foster Loyer. 5 other ‘Cats ended up in double figures on the night in a strong offensive showing. While Davidson started slowly with only 36 points in the first, they exploded for 51 points in the second half to build a large lead.

Stats of Note

With the exception of Sam Mennenga, Davidson was breaking in a completely new rotation in the frontcourt. Both of the new faces stepped up and scored in double figures: freshman Reed Bailey had an efficient 10 points on only 4 shot attempts and started in his first college game, and David Skogman had 12 points of his own. It was a standout showing for the rest of the frontcourt as well; Mennenga recorded a double-double with 11 points and rebounds and freshman Sean Logan contributed 5 points in just 3 minutes of action. Overall, Davidson’s bigs shot an outstanding 5 of 9 from three. Foster Loyer needed only 12 shot attempts to score 30, pouring in 6 threes. That amounted to a scorching 83.3 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and 89.1 true shooting percentage (TS%).

@ Wright State – Wednesday 11/9

Recap –  Davidson 102, Wright State 97 (2OT)

The Wright State Raiders looked to be a difficult first road test for the new ‘Cats lineup; they have made the NCAA tournament twice in the last 5 seasons, including last year. In the Scott Nagy era, they boast a .672 winning percentage. The test proved stern, as the ‘Cats found themselves in a 21 point hole down 46-25 with 4:06 to play in the first half. It proved to be a tale of two halves (and overtimes), however, as the ‘Cats made some great adjustments to erupt and outscore Wright St. 43-27 in the second. In the first overtime, Davidson rode its momentum to stretch a 7 point lead, but it evaporated as the Raiders forced more free basketball. Davidson retained a tight edge until Loyer hit a dagger three with 0:18 on the clock to put the ‘Cats up 4.

Stats of Note

Foster Loyer deservedly got major hype from the national media for an absolute monster performance that flirted with a triple-double. He not only scored a career-high 38 points on 67.5 TS%, but also led the ‘Cats in rebounds (11) and assists (9). He scored 11 of the ‘Cats’ 13 points in the 2OT period, and played a taxing 48 minutes total. Of course, Davidson’s dramatic comeback was made possible by other all-around great performances. Bailey, Mennenga, and Connor Kochera all had 15-plus-point outings. Des Watson played 31 essential minutes off the bench, contributing 9 points and providing valuable relief when Grant Huffman faced foul trouble. Most importantly, the ‘Cats’ defense completely turned it around in the second half. Wright St. scored 52 in the first but only 27 in the second; despite the Raiders’ hot start, Davidson held them to a middling 48.9 eFG% and outshot them 43.5% to 26.7% from deep.

vs. Vmi – Wednesday 11/9

Recap – Davidson 75, VMI 71

In a flipped script, the ‘Cats built a big lead early against VMI, but faced a more tense second half. However, the result was the same: Davidson walked away victorious for the third time this week. Davidson took the lead with 16:14 remaining in the first and never relinquished it, though VMI cut it to 3 on a couple occasions late. Davidson notably held the Keydets to only 24 points in the first frame. The week’s high workload and fatigue from an extended game Wednesday showed a bit in the second half, but Davidson still emerged with a 75-71 win in Belk.

Stats of Note

Des Watson continued to step up for the ‘Cats, playing his best game of the week with a big 11-point contribution off the bench. He posted a highly efficient 70.9 TS% and was a perfect 4 of 4 from the charity stripe, which proved paramount to Davidson’s edge. Loyer once again led the ‘Cats with 17 points, but he was accompanied by fellow guard Grant Huffman’s excellent play. Huffman scored 15 points of his own, a personal best against D1 competition, and showed great aggression getting to the rim, with a perfect 6/6 performance inside the arc. Davidson’s two starting guards combined for a flawless 9 assists to 0 turnovers.

Statistical Trends, a Look Ahead, and Author’s Final Thoughts

– Davidson secured their first 3-0 start since the 2018-19 campaign!

– Foster Loyer is likely your Player of the Week in the A10. He averaged a line of 28.3/6.3/5.7 (PTS/REB/AST) on a 62.5 eFG% and 69.95 TS%. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who performed as well in the nation with a similar workload. He ranks third in the nation and first in the A10 in PPG.

– The road win over Wright St. was a great early test and should age well on Davidson’s resume. The Raiders, who look like strong contenders to win the Horizon League title again, followed up their home loss with a road upset of Louisville on Saturday. Davidson fans should root hard for Wright St. the rest of the season, as this has an outside chance of turning into a quadrant 2 win for Davidson if the Raiders crack the NCAA Net Rankings’ top 135. For reference, they’re currently 188th overall on KenPom but 124th in Massey’s index.

– Reed Bailey had a very impressive first week in the starting lineup, averaging 10.3 PPG. He shot 12 of 16 from the field and 4 of 6 from range for an outstanding 87.5 eFG%. Look for his volume to increase soon as he settles into Davidson’s offense.

– Last season, Davidson ranked 307th in pace according to KenPom, and the year before the ‘Cats were one of the 5 most patient teams in the country, ranking 353rd. The ‘Cats have pushed the tempo more this season under Matt McKillop, and they’ve already climbed to 246th in adjusted tempo thus far, despite their low preseason ranking. It will be interesting to see if this trend holds and the ‘Cats look to score more quickly after being a very methodical offense the past few seasons. Having two guards experienced at running point should help if Coach McKillop wants to speed up the offense.

– The Charleston Classic will be a huge opportunity for Davidson, despite the challenge. Their first round opponent, tournament hosts College of Charleston, led #1 UNC at the half on Friday but fell in the end, 102-86. They profile similarly to Wright St. in both KenPom’s (186) and Massey’s (118) rankings. With a ranking of 10th in adjusted tempo, expect them to try to push the pace against the ‘Cats. For a good gauge of the ‘Cats’ next test, watch them take on Richmond Monday night at 7. The second round will pit them against either South Carolina, led by first-year coach Lamont Paris, or Colorado State, a team fresh off a 25 win season and NCAA Tournament appearance on the 6 line. Both teams won a pair of close games to start 2-0 this week. Either would make for an exciting matchup, as both fall close to Davidson (111th) on KenPom, with U of SC at 84th and CSU at 107th. 

– The ‘Cats placed third in their previous appearance in the tournament, and another strong 2-1 showing would look great on Davidson’s resume. The ‘Cats tip off against Charleston at 7:30 PM on Thursday on ESPNU!

The post Davidson MBB Weekly Recap: The Matt McKillop Era Begins with a 3-0 Start! first appeared on 'CATS STATS.

Coach Scott Abell has only taken four seasons to establish a culture of success at Davidson, and plenty of key faces return to the Wildcats as they aim for back-to-back-to-back Pioneer Football League Championships. Davidson is picked to win the conference yet again by PFL coaches, with 8 of 11 first place votes. The ‘Cats feature numerous preseason all-conference selections, including the imposing backfield duo of Coy Williams and Dylan Sparks, veteran offensive lineman Beck Kipperman, and the PFL’s premier pass rusher Jonathan Hammond. We know the ‘Cats will bring a power option run attack to go with a fearsome pass rush. For the casual FCS football fan, however, it can be tough to keep track of what’s going on around the conference, with stats sometimes difficult to find. With that in mind, here’s our deep dive into the Wildcats’ 2022 schedule, covering all the hurdles in the way to a potential repeat title.

Sept. 3 @ Jacksonville State

2 PM, ESPN+

The ‘Cats begin their season with likely their most difficult test, taking the trip south to Jacksonville, Alabama to face a familiar foe. The Gamecocks eliminated Davidson from the 2021 FCS Playoffs 49-14 after Davidson won their first conference title in five decades. That recent meeting was the first ever between the two programs. JSU has established itself as one of FCS’s premier programs, routinely making deep postseason runs over the past decade. JSU has decided to make the jump to the FBS Conference USA in the wake of that success, so this could be the last meeting between the two teams for some time. The Gamecocks will be led by a new face. Former head coach John Grass won at least 10 games in 5 of his first 7 seasons, finishing in the FCS top 10 each of those years, but he resigned following a 4-5 start last season (despite notching an impressive road win over Florida State in week 2). The ‘Cocks are now led by Rich Rodriguez, once the leading candidate for head coach for the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2006 before they hired a certain Miami Dolphins coach. His tenure began with an impressive, nationally televised 42-17 demolition of #10 (FCS) Stephen F. Austin last week. The ‘Cats should expect Rodriguez’s typical option-heavy attack, with 4 players getting at least 8 rushing attempts last week and QB Zion Webb recording 3 touchdowns on the ground. The dynamic running back duo of Anwar Lewis and Matt LaRoche combined for 190 rushing yards on only 22 carries. If the ‘Cats are to pull a road upset, they need to keep the Gamecocks dangerous ground game in check and control the clock with their own option attack. 

Sept. 10 vs. Barton (Division II)

7 PM, Davidson All Access

Davidson will host Division II Barton for their home opener on “Run It Back” night, celebrating consecutive Pioneer League Championships. The two programs will meet for the first time in history, as Barton recently reestablished its program in 2020 after a hiatus starting in 1950. The Bulldogs, hailing from Wilson, NC, compete in the South Atlantic Conference and were picked to finish sixth in the conference’s preseason poll.

Sept. 17 vs. St. Andrews (NAIA)

7 PM, Davidson All Access

Davidson’s second home game also comes against an opponent from a lower NCAA division, this time St. Andrews from the NAIA. Davidson will also hold White Out Richardson this week.The Knights hail from Laurinburg, NC and play in the Mid-South conference; they are a young program, only established in 2017, and thus have never faced Davidson. The Knights are led by first-year head coach Robert Curtin following a 2-9 2021 campaign.

Sept. 24 @ Presbyterian

7 PM, ESPN+

The ‘Cats’ conference slate begins against the team picked last in the PFL Preseason Coaches’ Poll following a 2-9 season with zero in-conference wins. Davidson faced Presbyterian three times in the previous two seasons, going 2-1. The loss came on the road, where this game will be played, in the 2020/21 spring season. Those 2 victories are also Davidson’s only wins over the Blue Hose all time, as their series record is 2-5 . Last season saw the ‘Cats dismantle the Blue Hose 70-35, with an offensive explosion aided by Kevin Kelley, a coach known for never punting, giving them prime field position time and time again. Kelley was dismissed following a 2-9 season, where Presbyterian’s defense allowed a hefty 53.6 PPG due to his hyper-aggressive strategy. The aggressive approach did help the Blue Hose’s offensive numbers, however; RB Delvecchio Powell II returns after posting up 1,222 all-purpose yards, good for 4^th in the PFL. Powell is one of the most skilled offensive players in the league; he averaged an explosive 6.54 yards per carry and added 447 receiving yards to 775 on the ground. Presbyterian may have an uphill climb as they are competing with zero preseason All-PFL selections.

Oct. 1 vs. Butler 

1 PM, Davidson All Access

Davidson’s conference home opener comes against the team picked next-to-last in the PFL preseason poll Butler is coming off a 1-7 conference campaign (3-8 overall), with their only PFL win over Marist. Since winning 3 PFL titles in 5 seasons from 2009-2013, Butler has yet to win another conference championship. Last season the ‘Cats defeated the Bulldogs 49-35 in Indianapolis, though Butler trailed by 28 at the start of the 4^th quarter in that game. Davidson also holds a winning record against Butler all time at 8-6, including 3 in a row in the series. As with Presbyterian, Butler features no players on the All-PFL preseason team following the departure of last year’s first-team WR Yogi Flager. Butler struggled on defense last season, allowing 34.3 PPG. This should be an ideal matchup for Davidson’s option attack, as the Bulldogs defense allowed the most rushing yards in the PFL last season at 204.4 YPG. The ‘Cats led the league with 5.8 yards per attempt on the ground, while Butler gave up a poor 5.5 yards per carry, the only PFL team to allow more than 5. Barring major defensive improvement, particularly in the front seven, Davidson’s offense matches up well with Butler. 

Oct. 8 @ St. Thomas

2 PM, tommiesports.com

The heat is turned up on the Wildcats in week 3 of conference play, with a stern road test against the team picked to finish third in conference play. St. Thomas is built around defense, coming off a 7-3 (6-2 PFL) season in which it allowed only 17.3 PPG, best in the conference. Making things especially difficult for Davidson, it boasted an elite rushing defense: second best in the league by yards per carry at 3.67 and best at rushing TDs allowed (only 10). Of course, that strength didn’t matter in last season’s meeting with Davidson emerging victorious 42-15 at home. On the road, the Tommies could present a tougher test. Longtime head coach Glenn Caruso maintains a highly successful program, with a 133-24 record in his tenure. Under his watch, the Tommies became the first team to ever jump from Division III to Division I FCS competition starting in 2021. St. Thomas’s weakness is on the offensive side of the ball, as it averaged only 24.4 PPG last season, 4^th worst in the PFL. Davidson will be helped by the departure of two All-PFL defensive backs, but St. Thomas returns All-PFL LB Luke Herzog, who leads a strong defensive front. Expect a low-scoring battle in St. Paul that pits strength against strength with the battle of Davidson’s ground game against the St. Thomas front.

Oct. 15 vs. Morehead State 

1 PM (Red Out Richardson)

Davidson faces a team that won 7 games and went 6-2 in league play for the second consecutive week hosting Morehead State. Morehead State fell last season against Davidson 29-22 in Kentucky; despite this, they hold the all-time series lead 13-10. The Eagles should once again prove to be one of Davidson’s more challenging matchups and will likely be the ‘Cats’ second biggest test at home. The Eagles have two preseason all-conference picks on each side of the ball: OL Cam Merritt and DB Amir Wallace. Sophomore DB Cooper Krezek also appeared on the All-PFL Second Team last season. Despite this talented secondary, the Eagles were one of the worst teams against the run last season in the PFL; they allowed 186.6 rushing yards per game and 4.67 yards per carry, both in the bottom 4 of the league. Their offense was effective, with a third best 32.7 PPG, but this figure lags well behind Davidson’s elite 37.9 mark. They also lose one of the league’s best QBs in Mark Pappas, who was second in passing yards last season. Expect a game quite the opposite of the previous week’s, with a more favorable matchup for Davidson’s style. The ‘Cats may be able to generate explosive plays in the ground game and control the clock, so Morehead will need quick stops and turnovers to keep up in this potential shootout.

Oct. 22 @ Drake

2 PM, ESPN 3

Davidson defeated Drake last season to the tune of a dominant 45-14 trouncing, but that was an outlier in the series, as it was the Wildcats’ first win over the Bulldogs since 2007. Davidson trails in the series 2-9 and has no victories on the road. Drake’s offensive was also outlier last season, in a bad way. They averaged a mere 12.7 PPG, trailing the next worst team, Marist, by 10.1 points. Drake’s only preseason All-PFL honoree is punter Shane Dunning. The Bulldogs will aim to give him a lighter workload this season but still are predicted to finish 7^th in the PFL preseason poll. Drake will only tread water this season by riding its defense, which was 2^nd best in the conference in points allowed last year. Drake profiles as a team that will aim to play a low-scoring, field position game that maximizes its strength on defense. With Davidson’s defense also in the top half of the conference, however, the ‘Cats have the chance to pull out their first ever victory in Des Moines this October.

Nov. 5 vs. Stetson

1 PM, Davidson All Access

Stetson may be projected to finish 9^th  in the PFL this season, but they gave Davidson fits last year. The Wildcats escaped DeLand, FL with a 35-28 victory despite trailing the Hatters at halftime. Coming off a 4-7 season with one win coming via forfeit, it would be easy to write Stetson off, especially with the two games that follow. Coming off a bye and playing at home, it feels a bit silly to insinuate this is a cliché “trap game,” but Stetson’s individual talent, especially on offense, should not be overlooked. They boast an impressive 5 preseason All-PFL picks, spearheaded by the offensive trio of QB Alexander Piccirilli, WR Nazeviah Burris, and TE Demonic Carlucci. Returning talent on Stetson’s offense to should help the Hatters make a jump from its already solid scoring average of 26.1 PPG, but the Hatters will need to greatly improve their turnover margin and special teams. Despite allowing a poor 32.4 PPG on defense, Stetson was respectable in other defensive stats, giving up a decent 5.6 yards per play and 376.5 total yards per game; this discrepancy seems to imply the Hatters lost the field position battle via turnovers . If Stetson cleans this up and makes its predicted strides, it can give Davidson a scare before the two games that may define the ‘Cats’ season.

Nov. 12 @ San Diego 

4 PM, (No broadcast information)

It may be presumptuous to say that Davidson and San Diego are already legitimate rivals, but if this matchup continues to decide the PFL championship, the ‘Cats and Toreros could have one of the most unlikely cross-country rivalries in FCS. Davidson has bested San Diego twice in a row, and although the Toreros earned co-champion status last season, their head-to-head loss left them sitting on the couch for the FCS playoffs. That’s been an unusual occurrence under coach Dale Lindsey, however, who boasts an excellent .750 winning percentage (including 57-5 in conference play) over his 9 seasons. The Toreros made playoff appearances in 5 of them, including 4 in a row before Davidson’s back-to-back titles. With the two teams each at the top of the PFL poll and the last 6 championships won by one (or both) of them, this matchup could again decide the PFL. No other team received first place votes in the coaches’ poll, with the Toreros firmly in second. While San Diego’s average scoring margin last season (25.7 – 25.2) appears unimpressive at first, it should be noted they played a daunting out-of-conference schedule compared to the rest of the league, going winless against highly ranked FCS competition, such as Montana St. and UC Davis. Their 0-3 out of conference record is a stark contrast compared to their 7-1 record in conference, which featured a 7 game win streak following their loss to Davidson. Within the confines of the PFL, they allowed only 18 PPG, and the defense should once again be stout with 4 All-PFL selections on that side of the ball. The front seven features 3 such players, but none of them have helped San Diego solve the Cats’ power run game yet. On offense, all-conference WR Vance Jefferson is a problem; after a solid season with 44 receptions for 498 yards, he is primed to be one of the conference’s best wideouts as departures make him the team’s undisputed top target. Expect this game to be won in the trenches, with the ‘Cats looking to control the tempo as they have in the past two matchups. If the ‘Cats fall in a tough game on the road, it’s possible San Diego drops its own tough road matchups at St. Thomas and Morehead State. 

Nov. 19 vs. Dayton

1 PM, Davidson All Access (Senior Day)

If San Diego does not decide Davidson’s season and playoff potential, then Dayton might. Otherwise, this season could mimic last year, where Davidson clinched the tiebreaker over San Diego and made the playoffs despite falling to Dayton. Dayton itself aims to be a championship threat this season, though; they were picked 4^th in the conference and should have a prolific offense, much like the one that dropped 38 on Davidson last season in the ‘Cats lone conference loss. Moreover, Davidson is only 2-13 all time against the Flyers and is winless in the series since 2006. Despite the loss of standout QB Jack Cook, 3 offensive players made All-PFL this preseason, and the most dangerous of the bunch might be RB and all-purpose playmaker Jake Chisolm, coming off a season where he totaled 1,033 rushing yards, 361 receiving yards, and 245 kick return yards. He also led the PFL with 18 total TDs: 14 on the ground and 4 through the air. UD projects to lean hard on his production as a workhorse back. Conversely, the defense is a bit of a question mark. The Dayton front underperformed last season, allowing a middling 4.86 yards per rush. Dayton also struggled to force turnovers, ranking in the bottom third of the PFL with only 9 interceptions. This could prove to be one of the highest scoring games on Davidson’s schedule. If the PFL is decided here, it would be apropos for the senior class to clinch a title in their final home game against the team that spoiled last year’s perfect conference record.

Author’s Closing Thoughts

Davidson was overwhelming favorites to clinch the conference last season, and the preseason polls played out quite accurately. Evaluating the schedule this time around, Davidson should again have a path to a conference title, with only the 7^th most difficult schedule based off the average of the coaches’ preseason rankings. It bodes well for the ‘Cats that the team picked first in the PFL polls has gone on to win the conference 75% of the time since 2006. To compete for playoff berth, the ‘Cats will have to lock in on the long road trips to St. Thomas and San Diego. Tiebreakers over these teams may be crucial to returning to the playoffs. Overcoming these tough road matchups will have the ‘Cats in prime position to run back its conference title once again.

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