Round 2: The Madness Continues

March 27, 2021

(Probabilities are generated using metrics-based stats.)This year will certainly go down in the record books as one of the Maddest March Madnesses. Sports Illustrated recently reported that the 2021 Sweet 16 field features the highest seed average ever (source). With all this being said, there are a bunch of upsets that caused major shifts in calculated win probabilities this week—much moreso than in Round 1. The graph below shows just…

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Round One Recap

March 21, 2021

Around 10pm on Saturday night, after North Texas had just completed their 9-point upset over Purdue, the ESPN Tournament Challenge app sent a notification that out of 14.7 million brackets submitted to ESPN, a mere 1,039 remained perfect. Just for fun, I wanted to calculate how human judgement was performing against a simple coin toss.2^12 yields that for 12 games, there are 4096 possible outcomes. Dividing 14.7 million by 4096…

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