Round 2: The Madness Continues

March 27, 2021

(Probabilities are generated using metrics-based stats.)This year will certainly go down in the record books as one of the Maddest March Madnesses. Sports Illustrated recently reported that the 2021 Sweet 16 field features the highest seed average ever (source). With all this being said, there are a bunch of upsets that caused major shifts in calculated win probabilities this week—much moreso than in Round 1. The graph below shows just…

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Round One Recap

March 21, 2021

Around 10pm on Saturday night, after North Texas had just completed their 9-point upset over Purdue, the ESPN Tournament Challenge app sent a notification that out of 14.7 million brackets submitted to ESPN, a mere 1,039 remained perfect. Just for fun, I wanted to calculate how human judgement was performing against a simple coin toss.2^12 yields that for 12 games, there are 4096 possible outcomes. Dividing 14.7 million by 4096…

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Bracket tips from Cats Stats Scouting

March 17, 2021

COVID-19 is unpredictable, its effects have been costly on sports programs since its arrival. With the excitement of “March Madness” looming high in the air, the uncertainty of COVID-19 has every basketball fan anxious. Bracketology is here, but how can COVID-19 affect your bracket? COVID-19 has caused many game cancellations and program shutdowns. When analyzing the field of 68, there are some important COVID-19 implications to address. Most teams did not…

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With Kentucky and Duke out, who is left to favor?

March 17, 2021

Since selection Sunday, I’ve seen a lot of headlines about both Duke and Kentucky not being in the tournament for the first time since 1976. That made me want to research a little deeper into the potential impact that the absence of both Kentucky and Duke will have on this year’s March Madness tournament. The combination of both Duke and Kentucky not being in the tournament has only happened fourteen…

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