Round 2: The Madness Continues

March 27, 2021

(Probabilities are generated using metrics-based stats.)This year will certainly go down in the record books as one of the Maddest March Madnesses. Sports Illustrated recently reported that the 2021 Sweet 16 field features the highest seed average ever (source). With all this being said, there are a bunch of upsets that caused major shifts in calculated win probabilities this week—much moreso than in Round 1. The graph below shows just…

Read More >>

Round One Recap

March 21, 2021

Around 10pm on Saturday night, after North Texas had just completed their 9-point upset over Purdue, the ESPN Tournament Challenge app sent a notification that out of 14.7 million brackets submitted to ESPN, a mere 1,039 remained perfect. Just for fun, I wanted to calculate how human judgement was performing against a simple coin toss.2^12 yields that for 12 games, there are 4096 possible outcomes. Dividing 14.7 million by 4096…

Read More >>

Bracket tips from Cats Stats Scouting

March 17, 2021

COVID-19 is unpredictable, its effects have been costly on sports programs since its arrival. With the excitement of “March Madness” looming high in the air, the uncertainty of COVID-19 has every basketball fan anxious. Bracketology is here, but how can COVID-19 affect your bracket? COVID-19 has caused many game cancellations and program shutdowns. When analyzing the field of 68, there are some important COVID-19 implications to address. Most teams did not…

Read More >>

With Kentucky and Duke out, who is left to favor?

March 17, 2021

Since selection Sunday, I’ve seen a lot of headlines about both Duke and Kentucky not being in the tournament for the first time since 1976. That made me want to research a little deeper into the potential impact that the absence of both Kentucky and Duke will have on this year’s March Madness tournament. The combination of both Duke and Kentucky not being in the tournament has only happened fourteen…

Read More >>

Maddening Seeds of Doubt

March 17, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an NCAA college basketball season unlike any other. Many teams were forced to cancel multiple games throughout the season. This can sow doubt in the seeding of the teams. Mis-seeded teams can give bracket-making methods an edge. However, the very reason for the mis-seeding makes analysis of the season unlike other years. Even so, a lot of games were played. How much could even one…

Read More >>

Pandemic Madness

March 16, 2021

With the arrival of “Selection Sunday,” the NCAA Division 1 Basketball Championship tournament brackets have officially been released. “March Madness” is officially in full swing. However, looking back on this pandemic season; How has this season varied from past seasons and what impact could COVID-19 have on the tournament? Through analyzing the four #1 seeds in the tournament, we can gain insight into the answers to these questions. The pandemic has…

Read More >>

A March Madness Champion: Lucky or Good?

April 6, 2019

March Madness is so exciting, in part because every game can be a team’s last. Every single game is Game 7. That being said, there is not much that decides winners and losers in the NCAA Tournament. One shot, one tip, one rebound, and as we saw this year, seemingly one millimeter of the rim. Because most of these teams are so evenly matched, the team that advances is many…

Read More >>

Risers and Fallers in March Madness

April 2, 2019

After an exciting weekend, we are officially down to four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Auburn all took down challenging opponents in close games in the Elite Eight, securing their spots in the Final Four. Last week, Cats Stats posted on article looking at the Sweet 16 via the Efficiency Landscape, which was based on the following tweet by Kirk Goldsberry looking at…

Read More >>

Cats Stats Visualizes the Sweet 16

March 28, 2019

This year, the NCAA Tournament has nearly been all chalk. If you picked all the favorites when filling out a bracket this year, you’re probably doing pretty well. Unbelievably, all 1,2, and 3 seeds survived the first weekend of the tournament (no Middle Tennessee, South Carolina, or UMBC this year). In fact, all of Kenpom’s top 14 teams are still alive in this year’s edition of the tournament. The others:…

Read More >>

Wofford: An Underdog Story?

March 20, 2019

Wofford is a team that has experts around the country talking. There’s good reason for the chatter: The Terriers, the Southern Conference regular season and tournament champions, finished the season 29-4 at number 19 in the AP poll and number 13 in the NET rankings. Their offense is powerful: they have the 12th most points per game (83) in the country, the 10th best field goal percentage (49.3%), the 4th…

Read More >>