The March MATHness site has a new feature that produces a bracket. Behind the ratings are probabilities. I decided to try my own weightings with March Madness and see what probabilities popped out!
Here they are! And, may I note that Davidson has the best odds for the 5-12 upset that is so often anticipated in the Madness. May the odds be ever in your favor as you make your bracket.
| South | Team | Final 4 | Elite 8 | Sweet Sixteen | Round of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia | 0.41 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| 3 | Tennessee | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0.71 | 0.96 |
| 4 | Arizona | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.81 |
| 5 | Kentucky | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| 6 | Miami (FL) | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Nevada | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| 8 | Creighton | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| 9 | Kansas State | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| 10 | Texas | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| 11 | Loyola-Chicago | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| 12 | Davidson | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| 13 | Buffalo | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| 14 | Wright State | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| 15 | Georgia State | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 16 | UMBC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| West | Team | Final 4 | Elite 8 | Sweet Sixteen | Round of 32 |
| 1 | Xavier | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| 2 | North Carolina | 0.29 | 0.48 | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| 3 | Michigan | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| 4 | Gonzaga | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.93 |
| 5 | Ohio State | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.41 | 0.85 |
| 6 | Houston | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.67 |
| 8 | Missouri | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.48 |
| 9 | Florida State | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| 10 | Providence | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| 11 | San Diego State | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| 12 | South Dakota State | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| 13 | UNC Greensboro | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 14 | Montana | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| 15 | Lipscomb | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| 16 | Texas Southern | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| East | Team | Final 4 | Elite 8 | Sweet Sixteen | Round of 32 |
| 1 | Villanova | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| 2 | Purdue | 0.29 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 0.99 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.62 | 0.95 |
| 4 | Wichita State | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.91 |
| 5 | West Virginia | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| 6 | Florida | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
| 7 | Arkansas | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.47 |
| 8 | Virginia Tech | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.57 |
| 9 | Alabama | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| 10 | Butler | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| 11 | St Bonaventure | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| 11 | UCLA | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| 12 | Murray State | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| 13 | Marshall | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| 14 | SF Austin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 15 | CS Fullerton | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| 16 | Radford | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Midwest | Team | Final 4 | Elite 8 | Sweet Sixteen | Round of 32 |
| 1 | Kansas | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| 2 | Duke | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| 3 | Michigan State | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| 4 | Auburn | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| 5 | Clemson | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.37 | 0.75 |
| 6 | TCU | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.68 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| 8 | Seton Hall | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.58 |
| 9 | NC State | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.42 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.59 |
| 11 | Syracuse | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| 12 | New Mexico State | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| 13 | College of Charleston | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| 14 | Bucknell | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 15 | Iona | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| 16 | Penn | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
