Steph’s Recording Breaking Rate

On January 31st, Klay Thompson asked Steph Curry when he’s break Ray Allen’s 2,973 three-point field goal record. Curry noted that Klay was in the booth and should be the one computing the stats. Off the cuff, Klay predicted 40 games. Watch the interview below and you’ll see how he quickly revised his prediction when it was noted that Curry is still almost 400 made three-pointers away. We’ll post Curry’s link to the interview.

Supplying analytics is what Cats Stats does and we have supplied analytics to CBS Sports, ESPN, and Fox Sports. Gabe Levy of Cats Stats did some quick computations and we have our estimate!

Since 2015, Steph began taking a higher rate of 3 pointers per game. He’s been relatively consistent since that time. So, we’ll use Curry’s rate of three-pointers since the 2015-2016 season.

Specifically, Steph Curry has 2,584 career three-point field goals. This is 389 behind the all-time leader Ray Allen, who has 2,973. Before the 2015-2016 season, Curry never averaged more than 8.1 three-point attempts per game. Since then, he has never averaged less than 9.8 attempts. Based on the data since the 2015-16 season, Curry is averaging slightly more than 4.6 three-point makes per game. Now, the Warriors are a different team this year. True. Even so, Curry is averaging 4.5 three-point makes per game this season. If we take his average makes per game since the 2015-2016 season, it will take Curry another 84.499 games to tie the record. Thus, he will break the record in the 85th game from now. Being very specific, our computations have Curry breaking the record in 84.716 games.

So, it could happen this year if the Warriors made it late into the playoffs but is more likely to happen next season.

This article has 1 Comment

  1. Good analysis about number of attempts etc. But the record is for regular season threes only, so how the Dubs do in the playoffs isn’t an issue. 🏀👻🧮

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